Labour's internal strife threatens to engulf both the party and the nation in a summer of disarray, provided the challengers to Sir Keir Starmer can coordinate their efforts. With a shifting roster of potential candidates and uncertain alliances, it remains unconfirmed whether Sir Keir will even face a formal challenge.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has been widely tipped to resign from the cabinet today to mount a bid against his leader. However, under party rules, any candidate must secure the written backing of 20 per cent of Labour MPs—currently 81—to be officially nominated. It is unclear whether Streeting has achieved this threshold, which could force him to abandon his attempt in an embarrassing retreat.
If Streeting does secure the necessary support, it could open the door for other challengers, including former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband, and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. If multiple left-wing candidates such as Rayner, Burnham, and Miliband enter the race, they risk splitting the left-leaning membership vote, potentially allowing the more centrist Streeting to prevail—or enabling Starmer to retain his position.
Much will hinge on the decisions of Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC), which will establish the contest's rules. Here, we address some of the key questions surrounding the unfolding situation.
Would a new Prime Minister trigger a general election?
Almost certainly not. The next general election is scheduled for 2029, and there is no constitutional requirement for a change in Prime Minister to precipitate an early election. Under the UK electoral system, voters elect their local MP, and the party with the most seats selects the Prime Minister during its term. Given Labour's poor polling performance, any new leader would face a high-risk gamble that could propel Nigel Farage into Number 10. However, a YouGov poll last week indicated that 53 per cent of the public—including 35 per cent of Labour voters—believe a general election should be called if Sir Keir is replaced. Lord Hutton, a Labour peer and former defence secretary, echoed this sentiment, asserting that any successor 'absolutely cannot steal Keir Starmer's mandate' and should seek a fresh mandate from voters.
Who are the contenders?
As of now, no candidate has officially declared their intention to run, but this could change within hours. Wes Streeting, MP for East London and Health Secretary since 2024, is expected to formally launch his challenge today. He is considered a moderate, Blairite figure and would become the UK's first openly gay Prime Minister if successful.
Angela Rayner, MP for Manchester and a former teenage single mother, has not officially announced her candidacy. However, she made headlines today by revealing that she had settled a tax dispute with HMRC over an underpayment on an £800,000 holiday home, with no penalty for deliberate evasion. This row had forced her resignation as Deputy Prime Minister last year. She is positioned on the party's left.
Andy Burnham, a former minister under Gordon Brown, left the Commons in 2017 after failing to secure the Labour leadership for a second time. He has since served as Greater Manchester Mayor for nine years and has openly expressed his desire to return to Westminster and replace Sir Keir as a left-wing candidate.
Ed Miliband, who led Labour from 2010 to 2015, stepped down after losing the general election to David Cameron's Conservatives. He currently serves as Net Zero Secretary, spearheading Labour's green energy agenda, and is another left-wing contender.
Al Carns, the Armed Forces Minister, is a decorated former Royal Marines and special forces colonel who served in Afghanistan. He has been an MP only since 2024 and is touted as a future leader, though his level of support within the party remains unclear.
How does a Labour leadership election work?
The rules and timeline are set by the NEC. Candidates must first secure written backing from 81 MPs to stand. A campaign period follows, with its length determined by the NEC—a longer campaign would favour Burnham, while a shorter one would benefit Streeting and other left-wing candidates.
Voting uses a preferential system. Labour members and affiliated trade union supporters rank candidates in order of preference. A candidate must secure more than 50 per cent of votes to win. If no one achieves this in the first round, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on second preferences. This process continues until a candidate surpasses 50 per cent. Both Sir Keir and his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn won on the first round.
Who is the favourite to win?
Opinion polls suggest Andy Burnham is the favourite among Labour members, followed by Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, and Wes Streeting. However, Burnham faces significant hurdles, most notably that he is not an MP. While the UK constitution does not require the Prime Minister to be an MP (they could sit in the House of Lords), Labour Party rules mandate it. Thus, a vacant parliamentary seat would need to be found, which is no easy task.
In November last year, Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South, indicated he would step down for Burnham, but later clarified that Burnham does not want a seat in Norfolk, far from his North West power base. Recently, every Labour MP in and around Greater Manchester has denied plans to step aside. If Burnham cannot secure a seat, his candidacy is effectively blocked.
Even if a seat becomes available, the contest's timing could exclude him. If the NEC sets a short timeline—say, one month—he would likely be unable to trigger a by-election in time. A longer timeline would aid him, and his allies are pressuring the NEC accordingly. Additionally, Burnham would need NEC approval to stand in a by-election; in January, the NEC blocked him from running in Gorton and Denton, with Prime Minister Starmer arguing it would divert resources. However, reports suggest the NEC has softened its stance after losing Gorton to the Greens. Even if these obstacles are cleared, Burnham would face a tough by-election campaign against the Greens and Reform UK.
If Burnham is ruled out, the favourite would be another left-wing candidate, such as Rayner or Miliband. Miliband is reportedly only considering a bid in this scenario. If both he and Rayner stand, they could split the left vote, allowing Streeting to slip through or Starmer to retain power, albeit weakened.
Rayner effectively entered the race this morning by announcing she had paid £40,000 to settle her HMRC dispute, insisting no penalty for deliberate evasion. She also dismissed suggestions of a pact with Burnham, stating, 'I am not doing deals.' She indicated readiness to stand but said she would not strike first: 'I've made it clear that I wasn't going to trigger the Prime Minister – and that I want to see change.'
What are their policies?
If Sir Keir is ousted, a victory for any of the frontrunners could shift the government leftwards. Andy Burnham has already sought to reassure markets, after suggesting last autumn that the UK should not be 'in hock' to bond markets and pledging to borrow for council housing and nationalisation. His comments caused a dip in stocks and the pound, forcing a retreat. He advocates 'Manchesterism', described as business-friendly 'aspirational socialism', and has argued that losing control of housing, energy, water, rail, and buses means losing control of costs and public spending. His ally Louise Haigh has signalled support for increased spending.
Angela Rayner, in a 1,000-word essay following Labour's poor local election results, called for a left-wing overhaul. She urged a rising minimum wage, planning reform for infrastructure, and renationalisation, stating, 'We should be unafraid to promote new forms of public, community and cooperative ownership across the board.' She criticised wealth concentration and inequality from deregulation and privatisation.
Wes Streeting has opposed large tax hikes and welfare splurges but backed some spending increases, including relaxing the two-child benefit cap. He expressed discomfort with current tax levels and welcomed the abandonment of income tax hikes at the Budget. He has also ruled out VAT on private healthcare.
Ed Miliband, branded an eco-zealot, drives Labour's green agenda. The Energy Independence Bill commits to no new North Sea oil and gas licences and a ban on fracking, focusing on wind, solar, and hydrogen. Critics argue this increases reliance on expensive imports, but Miliband insists on accelerating clean energy.
Al Carns, in a New Statesman essay, argued that working-class voters feel Labour 'stopped understanding their lives', leading them to back Reform UK. He stressed the party must represent areas like Sheffield, Stoke-on-Trent, and Aberdeen, and restore hope and security for ordinary people.
