In the Sir Thomas Gerard pub in Ashton-in-Makerfield, locals are divided over whether Andy Burnham can reclaim a seat in Parliament and potentially challenge for the premiership. Over coffee or pints, the talk is of the "Burnham effect" and whether it can overcome the Reform threat. Disappointment in Keir Starmer's government is clear, but Burnham's popularity as Greater Manchester Mayor endures.
Burnham has announced his intention to stand in the by-election triggered by Josh Simons MP stepping down. Bookmakers have him as 4/6 favourite, but recent local elections saw Reform win 50.4% of the vote in the area, with Labour trailing at 22.7%.
Local Reactions
John McDonald, who switched from Labour to Reform, said Burnham could tempt him back: "If Keir Starmer was a football manager he would have been sacked by now. He promised change, but went back on a lot. I think people will be backing Andy Burnham. I voted Reform last time, but I could change my mind for him."
Bill Addison believes Burnham will win "hands down," calling him "one of the most honest politicians I've seen." Mark Smyth, a paramedic, was impressed after speaking to Burnham on a radio show: "He speaks well and follows up on what he says. He's a good candidate." However, he warned that 24 out of 25 local wards went to Reform recently.
Cath Jones, however, is unmoved: "I'm voting for Reform. Andy Burnham is not going to tempt me back. Labour always end up bankrupting the country." Brian Sherman added: "Burnham is only doing this because Reform gave them a drubbing. Labour has become the party of the middle classes."
Burnham's Pitch
Announcing his candidacy, Burnham said: "I grew up in this area and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people. I know they have been let down by national politics." He argued that his decade as Mayor has shown a better way, citing bus renationalisation and fare caps. "There is only so much that can be done from Greater Manchester. Much bigger change is needed at a national level."
Burnham's path is not straightforward. He must first be approved by Labour's NEC, then win the seat against a Reform party that Nigel Farage says will "throw everything at it." If successful, he could challenge Starmer, whose authority has been undermined by cabinet resignations and calls for his departure.
The by-election is seen as a test of whether Burnham can revive Labour's fortunes in a former stronghold that has shifted dramatically towards Reform.
