The path to becoming prime minister is fraught with difficulties for any of Sir Keir Starmer's would-be challengers, as the current Labour leader faces mounting pressure to resign. Despite dozens of MPs calling for him to step down and several ministerial resignations, Starmer remains in post partly because his potential successors each confront significant hurdles.
Wes Streeting
The health secretary is widely considered the cabinet minister most likely to replace Starmer. Streeting has never concealed his ambition to become PM and reportedly has the backing of enough Labour MPs to trigger a leadership election, having secured support from over 81 MPs, the minimum required. However, launching a challenge could politically haunt him. Rishi Sunak's resignation hastened Boris Johnson's departure, but Sunak never escaped the reputation as a backstabber, facing accusations of treachery from Tory voters. Streeting is keen to avoid that fate, but it is not his only problem.
His relationship with disgraced former Labour grandee Peter Mandelson is a significant issue. Streeting was forced to publish texts between them earlier this year as the Mandelson scandal engulfed the government. He insists they were not close friends, writing that contrary to reports, he was not a close friend of Mandelson but would not wash his hands of their association. Starmer was reportedly alerted to Streeting's intentions when a Downing Street staff member accidentally texted details of his bid, including the "five pillars" of his campaign and his "plan for government."
Streeting is a charismatic cabinet minister who connects with the public, but his popularity ratings are low, with only 13% of voters believing he would do a better job than Starmer. His position on the centre-right of the party could also prove a stumbling block, as the next leader will be chosen by Labour members, who are generally more left-wing than the general population.
Andy Burnham
The "King of the North" is popular among Labour MPs, party members, and the public, but he faces a major obstacle: he has no seat in Westminster. Starmer blocked a potential return earlier this year, barring him from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Since then, there have been rumours of potential seats, but on Tuesday, Marie Rimmer, the St Helens MP, said she was going nowhere and had not spoken to Burnham in years.
Even if Burnham finds a by-election, there is the question of whether he could stand. Most of the party's National Executive Council voted with Starmer to prevent Burnham from standing, amid fears over his current role as Greater Manchester mayor. If elected MP, he would have to quit that job, triggering an election Labour fears it could lose due to the rise of Reform and the Greens. Allies say he has a plan to return as an MP, and his team has lined up an "impressive" candidate to replace him as mayor. However, even if these hurdles are cleared, winning any seat would be tough, and other parties, especially the Greens and Reform, would pour resources into stopping him.
Angela Rayner
Rumours about Angela Rayner's ambitions have circulated since she resigned from Starmer's cabinet last September after it emerged she had underpaid stamp duty on her Brighton flat. That row could still prevent her from entering No 10. Popular among MPs, who see her as a shrewd political operator, Rayner is on the soft left of the party, seen as more likely to win votes from the membership. Earlier this year, in what was widely seen as her clearest challenge to Starmer, she warned Labour was "running out of time" to deliver change and could not "go through the motions in the face of decline."
There were rumours of a joint bid with Andy Burnham after she met with the Greater Manchester mayor, which could boost her popularity. However, her tax affairs remain the biggest stumbling block. The scandal broke last summer but has not yet been settled. Even if the bill is resolved quickly, some in the party think she cannot stand. One Labour peer told The Independent: "Labour cannot have a party leader who did not pay the correct tax - at the same time as it is putting up people's taxes."
