Britain now has a continental political structure, with seven parties spread across three nations, all awkwardly crammed into a two-party Westminster system. The old way of doing things has died and will not return, but a new way has yet to be born.
The Next Two to Three Years Are Crucial
The next two to three years are likely to be crucial for our country. If we contrive to get the wrong result at the next general election, it may cause permanent damage to our constitution and stability.
The problem is that so many currents are running simultaneously in the same stretch of ocean. Labour, disastrously led by one of the most disappointing failures in its history, is threatened by Reform on the Right and the Greens on the Left.
Labour's Dominance in Wales and Scotland Is Over
As if that were not enough, Labour's long dominance of Wales and Scotland is plainly over. It may soon be no more than a memory in places where some of its greatest leaders and most powerful mass support once originated.
The Tories have already undergone a similar process, especially in Scotland where Unionism was once wholly dominant. In England, they too face a pincer movement from Reform on the Right and the Lib Dems, stealthily but definitely, on their Leftward edge.
Yet the Apocalypse Has Not Quite Arrived
Yet the apocalypse predicted by so many for last Thursday has not quite materialised. Even the great nationalist advances have been moderated by the powerful showing of Nigel Farage's Reform in Scotland and Wales. Sir Keir Starmer's Labour suffered heavy losses in England's council polls and in Wales and Scotland.
This is in some ways the most interesting development of all. Mr Farage mischievously notes, in his interview with The Mail on Sunday today, that his is now the main Unionist party.
Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch Must Face the Facts
And Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has to face the fact that he has a point. Labour might, in private at least, muse on the fact that its opportunist rush to break up the UK under Sir Tony Blair has now thoroughly blown up in its face. It may count as one of the worst actions by any government.
What are we to do? Well, the Left have their own deep wounds to lick, and their own scores to settle, and we shall leave them to it. Whoever in the Labour Party seeks to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is first going to have to drag him out of No 10, where he shows every sign of genuinely wanting to hang on, so that he can keep failing.
A Miserable Process That Will Damage Labour Further
It will be a miserable process which, like all such contests, will damage Labour's prospects even more. And then, the new leader will face pressure to call an election so as to obtain the mandate that mid-term premiers increasingly need.
He or she will have a very good chance of losing such an election. Our constitution, at election time, rightly favours strong, decisive parties.
Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch Must Join Forces
Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch each might prefer it if they led such a party. But neither does. Both have the best interests of this nation at heart, as others, in our view, do not. They must find a way to join forces, for the sake of our divided Kingdom.
