Scotland's chance of advancing to the knockout stages of the World Cup has plummeted to just five percent after a series of results went against them following their 3-0 defeat to Brazil. Despite finishing third in Group C with three points, Steve Clarke's side now faces the very likely prospect of an early exit.
How Scotland's hopes unravelled
After beating Haiti on matchday one, Scotland lost to Morocco and then Brazil, leaving them on three points with a goal difference of -3. Initially, statistics gave them a 42% chance of reaching the last 32. However, unexpected victories for South Africa over South Korea and Ecuador over Germany meant that third-placed teams in Groups A, B, D, E and F now have better records than Scotland.
According to data analysts, Scotland's probability of progression has dropped to just 5.26% — roughly one in 20. They now need four of the third-placed teams from the remaining six groups to have worse records than their three points and -3 goal difference.
Elimination could come soon
Scotland's elimination could be confirmed as early as Saturday morning UK time if results go against them, though it is more likely they will have to wait another 24 hours. If they exit in the group stage, it will extend their record of never having progressed past the first round of a major tournament.
Clarke's honest assessment
Following the Brazil defeat, a glum Steve Clarke gave a frank verdict. "We made it difficult for ourselves, that's it," he told BBC Sport. "We gave them the goals, we gave them the game they wanted. Disappointing. It was unbelievable the shift the players put in, the ones who played 90 minutes in that heat and humidity were outstanding, but we have to be better if we want to compete at this level."
Clarke added: "In the first four or five minutes we passed the ball well and then made a mistake. You cannot do that at this level because it puts you on the back foot and it becomes a long night. For sure I think we're going home."
