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Ireland vs Wales Prediction: Baloucoune to Lead Irish Charge
Follow our rugby betting tips as Ireland host Wales in the Six Nations on Friday night in Dublin. Becky Ashton reports on Friday 06 March 2026 at 07:00 GMT.
Ireland are firm favourites to defeat Wales in Dublin, according to AP analysis. Wales travel to the Irish capital still searching for their first victory in this year's Six Nations Championship, with the match kicking off at 8:10pm and broadcast live on ITV1.
Ireland vs Wales Betting Tips
- Ireland to win by 11-20 points - 15/4 at Bet365
- Baloucoune to score Ireland's first try - 9/2 at William Hill
Steve Tandy's Welsh side currently languish at the bottom of the Six Nations table with just one point from their opening three fixtures. They make the short journey across the Irish Sea burdened by a dismal run of 14 consecutive Six Nations defeats.
Wales will draw some encouragement from their most recent performance against Scotland in Cardiff, where they narrowly lost 26-23 in a closely contested match. However, the stark reality remains that they have suffered defeat in 24 of their last 26 international matches, with their only two victories during this period coming against Japan.
Ireland, in contrast, opened their campaign with a heavy 36-14 loss to France but have since bounced back impressively with victories over Italy and, most notably, England. Their 42-21 triumph at Twickenham set a new record for an away win against England and keeps their Six Nations title hopes very much alive.
Ireland vs Wales Betting Preview: Wales' Woeful Run to Continue
Based on recent form, it comes as no surprise that betting sites have installed Ireland as heavy favourites, offering them a 27-point handicap. Wales are considered massive outsiders to secure their first win over Andy Farrell's Irish side since February 2021.
That 21–16 victory at the Millennium Stadium marked Wales' first win in five years against Ireland, and you must look back to 2015 for their last triumph in Dublin. The central question for this encounter appears to be not whether Ireland will win, but by how many points.
Last year's meeting was decided by just nine points, but the two previous encounters were won by Ireland with 24-point margins. While odds of 25/1 are available for Ireland to win by that exact scoreline again, our prediction suggests Wales might keep the contest slightly closer this time.
Ireland vs Wales Prediction 1: Ireland to Win by 11-20 Points - 15/4 at Bet365
Robert Baloucoune is currently the joint-leading try scorer for Ireland in this year's Six Nations alongside Jamie Osborne, with both players having crossed the line twice. The explosive left winger scored the final try in Ireland's 20-13 victory over Italy and followed it up with another crucial try in the triumph over England.
Some betting apps offer odds of 11/5 for Baloucoune to score two or more tries in Dublin, while the best price for him to score at any time is just 5/9. However, there appears to be slightly better value in backing him to score the first try for his side.
Ireland vs Wales Prediction 2: Baloucoune to Score Ireland's First Try - 9/2 at William Hill
Ireland vs Wales Teams
Ireland: Osborne; Baloucoune, Ringrose, McCloskey, Stockdale; Crowley, Gibson-Park; O'Toole, Kelleher, Furlong, Ryan, Beirne, Conan, Timoney, Doris (capt).
Replacements: Stewart, Milne, Clarkson, McCarthy, Van der Flier, Doak, Farrell, Frawley.
Wales: Rees-Zammit; Mee, James, Hawkins, Adams; Edwards, T Williams; Carre, Lake (capt), Francis, D Jenkins, Carter, Mann, Botham, Wainwright.
Replacements: Elias, Smith, Griffin, Beard, Cracknell, Hardy, J Evans, Hennessey.
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