Advanced weather modelling maps suggest Brits could be basking in 30C heat before the end of this month. Temperature anomaly maps show areas of deep red across the UK towards the end of May, particularly in England and Wales, indicating where the mercury is expected to rise well above the average for this time of year.
The GFS weather model shows maximum possible temperatures could rise to 25C and beyond for five consecutive days, starting on May 24 when the data shows highs of 27C in the south-east of England. Temperatures could hit 25C in Yorkshire on May 24, while 23C highs are possible in parts of Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland is expected to be a few notches cooler.
The maps again show 27C highs in the south-east of England on May 25, with London expected to get the best of the temperatures. 25C highs are on the cards across East Anglia at around 6pm, according to the GFS model. Temperatures are then expected to cool slightly on May 26 and May 27, with highs of 25C and 26C in the south-east and 20-22C across the rest of England and Wales.
However, May 28 could be an absolute scorcher. Maximum temperature maps for May 28 show possible highs of 30C just to the west of London. Temperatures elsewhere in the south-east could reach 28C and 29C, with 27C highs reaching as far north as Yorkshire. The mercury could creep into the low-20s once more in Scotland, whereas Wales could see highs of 25C. Temperatures in Northern Ireland aren’t expected to reach 20C.
In total, the GFS model suggests as many as 20 counties could see temperatures of 27C or above across the five days, all in England. However, an official heatwave is declared by the Met Office when temperatures reach or exceed the heatwave threshold for three consecutive days. The threshold varies from 25C to 28C across parts of the UK, standing at 28C in the south-east and dropping to 25C further north. So even if temperatures reach 30C on one day, an official heatwave may not be declared.
The Met Office says temperatures could turn “rather warm” towards the end of this month, but is yet to confirm a heatwave. Its forecast for May 18 to 27 states: “Temperatures near-normal to begin, but tending to recover as the period progresses, perhaps becoming rather warm by the end of the period, especially in the south.”
