The Australian federal government has outlined contingency plans for retail fuel rationing, according to documents obtained by Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws. The plans were developed as a 'worst-case scenario' measure, coinciding with warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that global oil markets could enter the 'red zone' by August due to dwindling stocks and Middle East export shortages.
Rationing Measures Detailed
The documents, from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), reveal that one proposed option to address a local fuel supply shortage is imposing a 'maximum transaction value per vehicle per day'. This rationing rule would limit how much fuel a single vehicle can purchase at a service station over a 24-hour period. The government has emphasised that rationing has not been necessary and is not expected to be required, with the March plan being a precautionary measure.
Government's Stance and Public Messaging
Despite the existence of these plans, Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese publicly ruled out the need for fuel rationing even at the height of the crisis. Bowen stated on 26 March that the liquid fuel emergency plan, which has been in place since 2006 and included discussions on banning jerry cans, 'was just a guide' and that the government 'wouldn't do it that way'. The government has instead encouraged voluntary measures, such as using public transport, to reduce fuel consumption.
Background and International Context
The documents cover the period from 21 February to 17 March, during the early stages of the Iran war following US-Israel strikes on Iran. Under the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act, Minister Bowen can declare a liquid fuel emergency (LFE), granting powers to direct fuel supply and, in extreme cases, implement rationing. Other countries have enacted various responses to the fuel crisis, including limiting purchases and asking citizens to reduce travel, according to the IEA.
Committee Discussions and Future Planning
Notes from a 13 March meeting of the National Oil Supply Emergency Committee (Nosec) indicate that Victoria representatives raised interest in 'thinking in future about what will rationing look like'. One participant, whose details were redacted, wanted to 'consider what demand rationing might look like and messaging around this'. The meeting resolved that DCCEEW would 'consider work on how rationing under an LFE declaration would work under a future worst-case scenario, and what messaging might look like'. By 17 March, Nosec was advancing discussions around rationing, with an executive summary stating it would 'begin conversations next week around planning for fuel rationing/restrictions, noting hesitations around signalling and tempering public panic'.
Government's Fuel Security Measures
Since the crisis began, the government has bolstered fuel stocks by securing 600 million litres of diesel and 100 million litres of jet fuel from additional cargoes sourced from Singapore, China, Brunei, and other nations. The federal budget also included a $10 billion fuel security package. Another document, titled 'Background to the National Oil Emergency Demand Restraint Strategy', discusses possible settings around 'regulated retail rationing'. It suggests that in a serious fuel shortage, controls could be placed on either bulk or retail sales of petroleum products, along with further customer demand-side management responses, to ensure other users have petroleum supply for as long as possible.
Consultation and Implementation
The document states that the government's preference is for the industry to respond to a fuel emergency in the first instance, before the minister's powers are enacted to direct supply. It notes that 'depending on the severity and expected/actual duration of an emergency, people may be restricted in their fuel consumption for certain periods of time'. Mandatory controls would only be introduced if market-based measures did not achieve desired outcomes. State and territory governments, the petroleum industry, and other key stakeholders would be consulted and given input into such measures.
