Ryanair warns weaker airlines may collapse amid soaring fuel costs
Ryanair warns weaker carriers face collapse over fuel costs

Europe's biggest budget airline has warned that weaker carriers could collapse under soaring jet fuel costs, as the industry braces for what one executive described as a possible 'Armageddon situation'.

Ryanair finance chief Neil Sorahan said the airline has contingency plans in place as fears grow over fuel shortages and surging oil prices linked to instability in the Middle East and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

'Do we have plans for some kind of Armageddon situation? Of course we do,' Sorahan told CNBC.

Wide Pickt banner — collaborative shopping lists app for Telegram, phone mockup with grocery list

The executive stressed that Ryanair still expects to operate a full flight schedule through both the summer and winter travel seasons and said the airline is 'not planning for cancellations.'

But he warned that smaller or financially weaker European airlines could struggle to survive if fuel prices remain elevated.

'I think we will see some of the weaker carriers who were already struggling before the war possibly go to the wall in the winter,' Sorahan said.

The comments have sparked fresh concern among European travelers already facing higher holiday costs, flight delays and uncertainty over airfares heading into peak summer vacation season.

Ryanair - often nicknamed the 'Spirit Airlines of Europe' because of its ultra-low-cost business model and no-frills flights - said it has protected itself from the worst of the fuel price spike by hedging 80 percent of its summer jet fuel needs at $668 per metric ton.

However, the remaining unhedged fuel has 'spiked' sharply in price amid volatile energy markets.

Jet fuel prices have surged as tensions in the Middle East threaten global oil supply routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for crude oil exports.

Sorahan said Ryanair has become less dependent on fuel tied to the region because suppliers are increasingly sourcing oil from countries including the US, Brazil and Venezuela.

'That said, I think prices will remain higher for longer, which puts Ryanair in a particularly strong position, given our strong fuel hedging,' he said.

The warning echoes concerns previously raised by Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, who said earlier this year that some airlines could face 'real failures' if oil prices continue climbing.

'If it continues at $150 a barrel into July, August, September, then you'll see European airlines fail,' O'Leary told CNBC in April.

Industry analysts say carriers with heavy debt loads, weaker balance sheets and limited fuel hedging are particularly vulnerable to prolonged spikes in energy costs.

The situation has drawn comparisons to Spirit Airlines in the US, which faced mounting financial pressure as higher operating costs worsened longstanding struggles.

Sorahan suggested a similar scenario could emerge in Europe this winter.

The comments came as Ryanair released its latest earnings results, showing profit after tax jumped 40 percent to nearly €2.3 billion ($2.7 billion) for the year ending in March. Passenger traffic also rose 4 percent to 208.4 million travelers.

Despite the strong profit growth, Ryanair's shares fell around 2.7 percent on Monday and are now down roughly 27.5 percent for the year as investors weigh concerns over consumer demand and fuel costs.

The airline also revealed that customers are booking flights later than usual, making it harder to predict summer demand and pricing trends.

While Ryanair had initially expected ticket prices to rise slightly this summer, it now says fares are likely to remain broadly flat. The company has already lowered some prices to help fill seats during the early summer travel period.

Still, Ryanair ruled out introducing a formal fuel surcharge for passengers.

'We haven't promised no price increases,' Sorahan said. 'Consumers pretty much decide what that pricing is going to be.'

The uncertainty surrounding fuel costs is already changing travel behavior across Europe and the UK, with some vacationers opting for rail travel or shorter-haul holidays closer to home. Southern European destinations are still expected to remain among the most popular choices this summer despite mounting concerns over airline costs and potential disruption.

Pickt after-article banner — collaborative shopping lists app with family illustration