The Strait of Hormuz, widely recognised as the world's most vital oil chokepoint, has seen a dramatic reduction in traffic due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Shipping data indicates that only three vessels traversed the waterway within a 24-hour period, underscoring the severity of the disruption. Before the war commenced on February 28, the Strait facilitated approximately one-fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
Current Situation
Following a brief declaration by Iran that the Strait was open on Friday, over a dozen tankers managed to pass through. However, a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran now appears fragile, as Iran has vowed retaliation for the U.S. seizure of one of its vessels and has refused to participate in new peace negotiations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described this as the largest supply disruption on record, surpassing the oil shocks of the 1970s and the loss of Russian pipeline gas after the invasion of Ukraine combined.
Existing Bypass Routes
East-West Pipeline (Saudi Arabia)
Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline has the capacity to transport up to seven million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Effective exports are estimated at around 4.5 million bpd, contingent on tanker and jetty availability. From Yanbu, shipments can reach Europe via the Suez Canal or Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb strait, though the latter route carries security risks from Yemen's Houthi militants.
Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline (UAE)
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) runs 360 kilometres from Abu Dhabi's Habshan onshore fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Operated by ADNOC and commissioned in 2012, it has a capacity of approximately 1.5 to 1.8 million bpd. However, oil loadings at Fujairah have been impacted by drone attacks since the Iran war began in late February.
Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline (Iraq-Turkey)
Iraq's primary northern export route extends from Kirkuk to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan via the Kurdistan region. After a two-and-a-half-year shutdown, the pipeline restarted in September following an interim agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. On March 17, Iraq commenced pumping 170,000 bpd, with plans to increase to 250,000 bpd, after signing export contracts via Turkey, Jordan, and Syria.
Goreh-Jask Pipeline (Iran)
Iran may utilise the Jask terminal, supplied by the one million bpd Goreh-Jask pipeline, to circumvent the Strait. According to the IEA's latest oil market report, the terminal's construction is not fully complete, but a loading test was conducted in 2024.
Potential Alternative Routes
Iraq-Oman Pipeline
In September, Iraq announced consideration of a pipeline from Basra to Oman's port of Duqm on the Gulf of Oman. The project remains at an early conceptual stage, with routes under evaluation including an overland line through neighbouring countries or a costly subsea pipeline.
Iraq-Jordan Pipeline
The proposed one million bpd pipeline would transport crude from Basra to Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba, bypassing Hormuz. First proposed in the 1980s and approved in principle in 2022, the project is stalled by cost, security, and political obstacles.
Gulf-Sea of Oman Canal
A canal bypassing Hormuz, similar to the Suez or Panama Canals, remains purely conceptual. Cutting through the Hajar Mountains toward Fujairah would present extreme engineering challenges and could cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
