The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with only three vessels passing the waterway in a 24-hour period, according to shipping data. The Strait, considered the world's most important oil chokepoint, had been handling roughly one-fifth of the global oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the conflict began on February 28.
More than a dozen tankers traversed the Strait after Iran briefly declared it open on Friday. However, a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appears fragile, as Iran has vowed retaliation for the U.S. seizure of one of its vessels and refuses to participate in new peace talks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has labeled this the largest supply disruption on record, surpassing the oil shocks of the 1970s and the loss of Russian pipeline gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine combined.
Existing Bypass Routes
East-West Pipeline (Saudi Arabia)
Saudi Arabia's 1,200-km East-West pipeline can transport up to seven million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Effective exports are estimated at about 4.5 million bpd, contingent on tanker and jetty availability. From Yanbu, shipments can reach Europe via the Suez Canal or Asia via the Bab el-Mandeb strait, though this route carries security risks from Yemen's Houthi militants, who have attacked tankers during the Gaza war.
Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline (UAE)
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) runs from Abu Dhabi's Habshan onshore fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz. Operated by ADNOC and commissioned in 2012, the 360-km pipeline has a capacity of about 1.5 to 1.8 million bpd. However, oil loadings at Fujairah have been affected by drone attacks since the Iran war began at the end of February.
Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline (Iraq-Turkey)
Iraq's main northern export route runs from Kirkuk to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan via the Kurdistan region. The pipeline restarted last September after a two-and-a-half-year shutdown following an interim deal between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government. On March 17, Iraq began pumping 170,000 bpd, with plans to reach 250,000 bpd, after Iraq's national oil company SOMO signed export contracts via Turkey, Jordan, and Syria.
Goreh-Jask Pipeline (Iran)
Iran may utilize the Jask terminal, fed by the one million bpd Goreh-Jask pipeline, to bypass the Strait, according to the IEA. The terminal's construction is not fully complete, but a loading from Jask was tested in 2024.
Proposed Alternative Routes
Iraq-Oman Pipeline
Iraq stated last September it was considering a pipeline from Basra to Oman's port of Duqm on the Gulf of Oman. The project remains at an early conceptual stage, with routes under study including an overland line via neighbouring countries or a costly subsea pipeline.
Iraq-Jordan Pipeline
The proposed 1 million bpd pipeline would ship crude from Basra to Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba, bypassing Hormuz. First proposed in the 1980s and approved in principle in 2022, the project remains stalled by cost, security, and political hurdles.
Gulf-Sea of Oman Canal
A canal bypassing Hormuz, similar to the Suez or Panama Canals, remains purely conceptual. A project to cut through the Hajar Mountains toward Fujairah would face extreme engineering challenges and could cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
