Britons planning holidays abroad in the coming months are 'very likely' to encounter flight cancellations or 'very, very expensive tickets,' energy officials warned today. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen cautioned tourists to brace for disruption and higher costs as airlines adjust schedules and prices to cover surging fuel expenses.
Jet Fuel Shortages Loom
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes physical jet fuel shortages could begin in June due to the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war. Carriers have already announced price hikes, with United Airlines indicating fares may need to rise by up to 20 per cent to offset fuel cost surges. Air France-KLM plans to increase long-haul cabin fees by €50 (£43) per round trip, while Delta and Southwest are raising baggage fees.
Mr Jorgensen told Sky News: 'Unfortunately, it's very likely that many people's holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets. Even if we do everything we can, if the jet fuel is not there, then it's not there.' He added: 'It is primarily a crisis of prices and not yet a crisis of supply, but unfortunately we cannot be sure to prevent a crisis of supply, especially on jet fuel, if the crisis continues.'
Europe's Jet Fuel Dependency
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol revealed that Europe gets about 75 per cent of its jet fuel from the Middle East, but this is now 'zero' as it tries to boost imports from the US and Nigeria. He warned that cancellations by airlines like Lufthansa, KLM, and SAS could be 'only the start' as demand surges by 40 per cent in the peak summer season.
Mr Birol told CNBC: 'Europe gets about 75 per cent of its jet fuel from Middle East refineries and this is basically now almost zero... Europe is now trying to get it from the US and Nigeria. If we are not able to get additional imports from these countries, we will be in difficulties.'
He noted that Lufthansa, KLM, and SAS have already reduced flights, calling it 'only the start.' 'The problem is when we move to summer, in August, jet fuel demand is about 40 per cent higher than in March. So demand will increase and if supply stays where it is now, the challenge can be even bigger.'
Airlines Cut Schedules
Lufthansa announced it would remove 20,000 short-haul flights from its schedule through October, equivalent to about 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel. SAS said it would cancel 1,000 flights in April due to high oil and jet fuel prices, after cancelling 'a couple hundred' flights in March. KLM will cancel 160 flights in Europe in the coming month.
According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, all but one of the world's 20 largest airlines have cancelled flights scheduled for next month across every major region. Senior consultant Richard Evans said this was a 'direct result of airspace and airport disruption in the Middle East, as well as the cost impact of a doubling in jet fuel prices.'
He added: 'It appears extremely likely that more reductions are ahead. Delta guided to flat year-on-year capacity in Q2 2026, against its current plan of 2.7 per cent growth, and Ryanair hinted it might trim schedules by 5 to 10 per cent if jet fuel prices remain at current levels.'
Call for Staycations
The head of Italy's Civil Aviation Authority, Pierluigi di Palma, suggested people consider staying in their home countries for summer holidays. He told Sky News: 'It is best to recommend holidays nearby, rediscovering beautiful places in our country. For those who still want to risk taking a long trip, it's a good idea to consider special insurance that can provide reassurance regarding a guaranteed refund in the event of a delayed or cancelled flight.'
Jet fuel prices have more than doubled in some markets since the war began, rising from about $99 (£73) per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 (£155) a barrel in early April. The latest figure is $185 (£137).
Tim Jeans, former commercial director at Ryanair and managing director of Monarch Air, described a 'triple whammy for airlines at the moment' including the Middle East issues causing a massive spike in fuel costs. He said holiday airlines have 'very robust bookings' for May, June, and July, but there 'may be some trimming of schedules.'
Airports Council International has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen 'in a significant and stable way within the next three weeks,' a 'systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.' Airlines UK urged ministers to make preparations now to avoid disruption, warning of the 'immediate impact on the UK aviation sector and consumers.' The EU estimates the war is costing Europe around €500 million (£433 million) each day.
