Aviation Expert Warns of Global Flight Cancellations Amid Jet Fuel Crisis
Hundreds of thousands of flights could be axed worldwide, with airlines facing potential collapse, if the jet fuel crisis continues into the summer months, according to a leading aviation expert. Passengers are already confronting significantly higher airfares after the cost of jet fuel doubled since the onset of the conflict involving Iran.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Supply Crisis
The conflict prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route for jet fuel exports from the Gulf region. This vital passage remains closed to shipping, leading the International Energy Agency (IEA) to issue a stark warning that Europe could face jet fuel shortages within six weeks.
Aviation specialist Sally Gethin emphasized that the impact on air passengers will depend entirely on how long the Strait remains closed. 'Even if it opens, you would still need substantial time for jet fuel supplies to restart properly,' she explained to the Daily Mail.
Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Travel
'The best-case scenario would involve fares increasing and some routes being cancelled,' Gethin stated. 'The worst-case scenario, if this continues for six to eight weeks with shortages intensifying, could pose an existential crisis for airlines. Even implementing fuel surcharges might not allow them to recoup costs.'
She warned that globally, tens of thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands of flights could be cancelled. While holiday companies would also be affected, consumers with ATOL-protected trips would receive protection if their travel plans are disrupted.
Airlines Already Taking Drastic Measures
Several airlines have already begun implementing operational changes in response to the crisis. Lufthansa announced that its regional subsidiary, Lufthansa CityLine, will suspend all operations starting Saturday due to soaring kerosene prices and ongoing labour disputes.
Meanwhile, Dutch carrier KLM has cancelled 160 flights scheduled over the next month as a direct result of escalating fuel costs. These developments come as officials conduct emergency planning for potential shortages that could materialize as early as the late May bank holiday, threatening thousands of family getaway plans just as the peak travel season begins.
Smaller Airports and New Routes Most Vulnerable
Gethin predicted that smaller airports with limited jet fuel storage capacity would be hit hardest by the crisis. Additionally, flights on recently launched airline routes would be most susceptible to cancellation. She suggested the ultimate outcome could resemble the 1990s aviation landscape, when air travel was considerably more expensive and low-fare carriers were far less prevalent than today.
European Border Controls Compound Travel Woes
Holidaymakers could also face queues lasting up to four hours at certain European airports due to new border controls implemented by Brussels. The Entry/Exit System (EES), an automated digital border technology designed to vet non-EU tourists upon arrival and departure, became fully operational last week.
Thomas Reynaert, a Vice President of global industry body IATA, expressed serious concerns: 'We are very worried about the lack of progress in resolving EES problems. Unless borders are adequately staffed and electronic systems function properly, passengers could queue for up to four hours at popular destinations.'
Government and Industry Response
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol sounded the alarm, stating Europe has approximately six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining. He warned that flight cancellations could begin 'soon' if oil supplies remain inconsistent.
UK ministers are reportedly conducting contingency planning for potential shortages within five to six weeks. Officials estimate that less than 10% of flights would require cancellation if shortages occur, citing British suppliers' successful adaptation and diversification of fuel sources. Airlines have been instructed to provide passengers with at least two weeks' notice for any cancellations.
Airlines UK, representing major carriers including British Airways, easyJet, and Ryanair, confirmed ongoing discussions with the government about 'crucial measures needed to support aviation during potential fuel disruption,' while noting there is 'currently' no supply disruption.
Emergency Services Prioritized in Worst-Case Planning
According to sources familiar with shortage planning, emergency service aircraft—including air ambulances, lifeguard helicopters, and police helicopters—would receive priority access to jet fuel under worst-case scenario provisions if supplies were to completely deplete.
Paul Charles, CEO of luxury travel consultancy The PC Agency, cautioned: 'Demand for air travel is at record highs, making it particularly concerning that airlines might need to cancel flights by the late May bank holiday. Even if the conflict ended immediately, there would be a substantial fuel gap that cannot be quickly filled from alternative sources. Long-haul flights would likely be most severely affected, as airlines cannot guarantee fuel availability at destinations.'
The government stated it continues to engage with British airlines to support operations amid the Middle East conflict and minimize passenger impact.
