Could your summer holiday be in peril due to a jet fuel crisis? That is a concern shared by many travellers this weekend, after reports that the UK is more exposed to a shortage of jet fuel than anywhere else in Europe. Earlier this week, the prime minister even suggested people may have to change “where they go on holiday”. Yet Britain’s airlines continue to insist they are not seeing any shortages.
What is the current supply situation?
Simon Calder, travel correspondent for The Independent, has multiple flight bookings of his own for the coming months and takes a look at what it all means. The UK has more flights than any other European nation, and therefore a greater thirst for fuel. The country is heavily dependent on imported aviation fuel. However, airline bosses and the government are stating there are no current shortages. Jet2 and easyJet have confirmed they see no reason why planned flights should not go ahead. The only cancellations observed are those made for purely commercial reasons, with the high price of aviation fuel making some poorly performing routes loss-making, leading airlines to ground planes because it is cheaper than flying them.
Is all the talk of aviation fuel shortages rubbish?
Not at all. The equilibrium that has kept airline engines turning for decades has been disturbed, and a highly significant supply route from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz has been ruptured. However, demand for fuel is also diminishing, partly because Gulf-based airlines are flying significantly less, but also because the high price of aviation fuel is leading carriers to cancel flights tactically. Aurigny of Guernsey was the first to begin grounding flights almost as soon as the Iran conflict began, with the aim of flying one completely full plane instead of two half-empty departures. More such behaviour is expected if, as rumoured, the government relaxes the tight rule on “slots” at key airports.
Why are airport slots relevant?
It is no secret that airlines have seen reduced demand from travellers since the crisis unfolded. British Airways has a dozen flights on a typical day from London to Dublin, and its sibling Aer Lingus has many more. Both airlines might like to take a few of those flights out of the schedule and move passengers an hour or two either way. That could fill empty seats and save cash, as well as pushing up fares for remaining seats. In normal times, strict rules apply to the precious permissions to land and take off from Britain’s most congested airports: use it or lose it. It is predicted that this rule will be suspended, just as it was during Covid, allowing BA and other airlines to ground flights with impunity. This will reduce demand for aviation fuel, preserving it for holiday flights.
Will holiday flights be prioritised over business flights?
Simon Calder believes so. While July and August are the busiest months for leisure travel, they are always very quiet for business, partly because corporate travellers tend to be on holiday. Axing a few Heathrow to Frankfurt flights will have far less impact, emotionally on the passenger and financially for the airline, than grounding a Luton to Mykonos departure.
What are your rights if your flight is cancelled?
Under air passengers’ rights rules, travellers whose flights are departing from the UK or the EU, or on British or European airlines from anywhere in the world, have strong rights. They are entitled to be flown to their destination as close to the original schedule as possible, on any airline with seats available, and to be provided with meals and hotels if there is a significant delay.
What about long-haul flights?
There is a straightforward fix: filling up an aircraft’s tanks fully and making a “pitstop” on the way home. This has long been done in many circumstances, including in the UK when a fire reduced fuel supplies at Heathrow, and flights to Australia had to pause at Stansted.
Any other way to deal with shortages of fuel in the UK?
The easiest method is “tankering” in fuel from abroad. This week, the boss of Wizz Air in the UK told Calder that the airline has contingency plans to bring in fuel from abroad to the UK, filling aircraft tanks to the brim in Budapest for the flight back from Gatwick. The amount of fuel burnt could also be substantially reduced by grounding shorter-distance domestic flights, especially from Manchester, Newcastle and southern Scotland to London. Airlines would object, but such a move would free up fuel for journeys that cannot realistically be done by rail, such as Luton to Mykonos.
So no big worries, then?
Simon Calder predicts not. Holidaymakers actually dealt with a much bigger shortage of flights in 2022, coming out of Covid, when airlines such as British Airways and easyJet cancelled tens of thousands of flights due largely to staff shortages. It was painful and awkward, but almost everyone got their holiday.
