Jet Fuel Crisis Threatens Summer Flights as Hormuz Blockade Bites
Fears are mounting over potential flight cancellations across the UK and European Union as airports issue stark warnings about jet fuel shortages. The crisis stems from the ongoing US–Israel military actions against Iran, which have severely disrupted oil supplies through the critical strait of Hormuz. Airports Council International Europe has alerted EU commissioners that without a resumption of Middle Eastern oil flows within the next three weeks, systemic shortages could become inevitable, jeopardising the summer holiday season for millions of travellers.
Imminent Shortages and Price Surges
Jet fuel prices have skyrocketed since late February, following coordinated attacks on Iran ordered by US and Israeli leaders. According to data from the airline lobby group Iata, global jet fuel prices more than doubled year-on-year to $1,650 per tonne by the end of last week. In Europe, prices surged by 138%, while Asia experienced an even steeper increase of 163%. This spike is driven by a global scramble to secure fuel, as Iran's effective closure of the strait of Hormuz—a key shipping route for Gulf exports—has choked off vital supplies.
Brent crude oil prices remained elevated at around $96 a barrel on Friday, despite a recent two-week ceasefire announcement. This marks a significant jump from pre-conflict levels of approximately $72, underscoring the market's volatility and concerns over the ceasefire's stability. Rico Luman, a senior transport economist at ING, highlighted that smaller airports, which typically rely on deliveries and maintain only four to five weeks of reserves, are particularly vulnerable. He warned that airlines might be forced to cancel flights within weeks as fuel stocks dwindle, with less popular leisure routes likely to be cut first due to fewer rebooking passengers.
Airline Responses and Regional Impacts
Several airlines have already taken preemptive measures in response to the fuel crisis. In the UK, smaller carriers like Skybus and Aurigny have cancelled routes, including flights from Newquay to London Gatwick and connections between the Channel Islands and destinations such as London City and Paris. Globally, airlines including Air New Zealand, AirAsia X, Vietnam Airlines, and Scandinavian SAS have reduced services to mitigate rising costs.
Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, revealed that the company is considering cutting up to 10% of its flights. This move reflects broader industry anxieties, as Europe traditionally sources over 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with more than 40% shipped through the strait of Hormuz. The blockade has forced European buyers to compete with Asia for alternative cargoes, exacerbating supply constraints.
Economic and Tourism Ramifications
The jet fuel shortage poses significant economic risks beyond mere fare increases. Outright shortages could compel individuals and businesses to cancel travel plans or delay exports, potentially inflicting broader economic damage. Airports Council International emphasised in a letter to EU officials that the situation threatens the entire tourism ecosystem, which many economies depend on, especially at the start of the peak summer season. The letter, first reported by the Financial Times, called for proactive EU monitoring and action to address mounting concerns over fuel availability and military impacts on demand.
Willie Walsh, Iata's director general, cautioned that even if the strait of Hormuz reopens, it could take months for supply chains to normalise due to disruptions in Middle Eastern refining capacity. Prior to the crisis, Iata had forecast a 4.9% annual growth in passenger traffic for 2026, but this projection is now under threat. The global jet fuel market is uniquely exposed to Gulf disruptions, as alternative export routes are limited; unlike crude oil, jet fuel cannot bypass the strait via pipelines, according to analysis from Macquarie, an Australian investment bank.
Current Supply Status and Government Stance
The final cargo of European jet fuel to pass through the strait of Hormuz before the conflict is scheduled to arrive in Copenhagen on Saturday, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier in the week. In the UK, the last tanker of Gulf jet fuel reached Kent on Tuesday aboard the Maetiga vessel from Saudi Arabia. Despite these deliveries, the overall supply chain remains precarious.
A UK government spokesperson stated that British aircraft have not reported any fuel supply disruptions and are operating normally. The spokesperson added that authorities are engaging with carriers to support operations amid the Middle East war and minimise passenger impacts. However, with the clock ticking on the three-week deadline, the aviation industry braces for potential chaos unless a swift resolution to the Hormuz blockade is achieved.
