The Great Summer Holiday Gamble: What Are the Chances Your Trip Will Go Wrong?
As inflation soars and warnings about jet fuel shortages come thick and fast, can anyone be sure their holiday will go ahead as expected? It is the undecided who may be absent from the Algarve and the Aegean this summer, writes Simon Calder.
Thursday 23 April 2026 06:00 BST
EU Energy Chief Predicts Holiday Flight Chaos and Warns Fuel Prices May Take ‘Years’ to Recover
It is the end of the summer holiday getaway as we know it. At least that is the impression you may have taken from the news stories warning of tens of thousands of flight cancellations, three-hour queues for passport control, and the entirety of Europe running out of aviation fuel by the end of May due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Just look at these headlines:
- Ryanair: 30,000 more passengers grounded in next three days
- Airlines ordered to cancel summer flights now to avoid holiday misery
- British Airways fares soar as 2.8 million seats cancelled this summer
Fortunately, they are not from this year – all ancient history in aviation terms. In 2017, Ryanair got itself into a bit of a muddle with pilot rosters, which led to the cancellation of thousands of flights. In 2022, both British Airways and easyJet hopelessly overpromised in their schedules and ended up cancelling tens of thousands of flights.
Concerned as I am that many travellers are feeling anxious and apprehensive rather than anticipating with joy their summer holidays – fortunately, as someone who has been around a bit, I can see only reasons to be cheerful, not fearful.
Perhaps I might convince you to anticipate your summer holiday with joy rather than caution.
Why Do I Keep Hearing That Airlines Are Cutting Back?
Aviation is a low-margin industry. When the price of fuel doubles, flights which were only marginally profitable can become heavily loss-making. Yes, many leading airlines are “hedged” – locked into low prices – typically for 80 per cent of their summer fuel needs.
Having to pay the current going rate for Jet A-1 fuel is a problem they could do without. And a very good way to do that is to reduce those expected fuel requirements by 20 per cent. Then all the remainder is at the bargain end of the scale. So a shrewd airline will slim down its schedules by the required amount. The carrier can say, “Look, we are conserving fuel.”
One side effect of reducing the number of available seats is to push up the price of those that remain. So airlines will certainly not be losing 20 per cent of their revenue.
So ‘Win-Win’ From the Airlines’ Point of View?
Not quite. Under air passenger rights rules, they still have to get you and me from A to B. But that can be done without too much upheaval for passengers or expense for passengers.
What matters to passengers is simply: will my holiday flight go ahead?
If the airlines succeed in winning concessions from the government, then it seems inevitable. Some flights will be cancelled, but it remains the airline’s obligation to get you where you need to be on the original date of travel, if that is at all possible.
On a typical day, Lufthansa has two flights from Glasgow and three from Edinburgh to its main hub, Frankfurt. One or both of the Glasgow flights could be cancelled and passengers moved to Edinburgh.
Similarly, Lufthansa flies early each evening from Birmingham to Frankfurt. Those passengers could be offered the choice of Manchester or London Heathrow departures at much the same time. Annoying, but not the end of your holiday.
Will There Be Enough Seats to Go Round?
At present booking levels, yes. It is those who have hesitated to commit who may find that seats are scarce and fares astronomical.
What About Rumours of a ‘Secret Letter’ From Airlines to the Government?
One person’s “secret” could be another’s “carefully leaked”.
The airlines want the right to reduce flights – but without damaging their long-term prospects. They are pressing the regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority, to suspend the “use them or lose them” rules that normally govern precious airport slots at London Heathrow and Gatwick.
Carriers also hope to persuade the government to cut air passenger duty, relax the rules on night flying, and suspend the emissions trading scheme that adds to their costs. They would also like to attenuate air passengers’ rights. For example, at present, if the airlines give less than two weeks’ notice of a cancellation, they are liable to pay cash compensation. Define fuel-related groundings as “extraordinary circumstances”, and the payout is avoided.
There is a well-worn saying in aviation: never waste a good crisis. And this one is certainly being milked for all it is worth.
