London is experiencing a “secondary wave” of falling primary school numbers, driven by a housing crisis and a falling birth rate — and the trend appears set to continue. New council forecasts suggest reception pupil demand across the capital will fall by around 2.5% between 2025 and 2026 and 2029 and 2030, equivalent to approximately 2,200 to 2,300 fewer children starting school.
Most Boroughs See Declines, but Eight Buck the Trend
Most London boroughs are seeing pupil numbers slide, with rolls down by an average of just over 6% and the steepest falls seen in Inner London. For schools already grappling with stretched budgets, shrinking class sizes, and difficult decisions over staffing and provision, the figures paint a sombre picture for the capital. But, amid the decline, eight London boroughs are bucking the trend. These include Barking and Dagenham, Havering, Brent, Ealing, Hounslow and Barnet, all of which have seen an increase in pupil numbers, according to London Councils’ Yolande Burgess, who gave evidence to a House of Lords committee last week.
Why Outer London Is Growing
One thing that all these boroughs have in common is that they are in Outer London. Regeneration and rising property prices are pushing families to the outskirts of the city, where larger homes with private garden space are often within reach. While the Elizabeth Line has been “transformational” for the city in its four years of service, it may also have contributed to this shift in where people are living. By slashing commute times into the capital by over half, it’s made it much easier for workers to keep city jobs while raising their families in more affordable areas further out.
London Assembly Chair Bassam Mahfouz said the Elizabeth Line, alongside gentrification in outer London boroughs, has “pushed the boundaries of where families and key workers” may want to live. But that shift has come with consequences. Inner London is steadily being hollowed out, with schools already having to adjust to falling pupil numbers by merging or closing altogether as demand thins out.
School Closures and Financial Pressures
Around 90 primary and secondary schools in London have closed or merged over the last five years due to falling pupil numbers, according to The Standard. An additional 34 schools face closure ahead of the 2025 to 2026 academic year. Speaking at the inquiry into falling primary school rolls, Yolande Burgess said: “The impact is often felt harder by those schools that are serving the most disadvantaged students. We are particularly feeling it in London with falling school rolls coinciding with a significant increase in need, particularly with SEN, and support for mental wellbeing. The mental health decline in children and young people has been startling post-Covid.”
With 90% of school funding tied to pupil numbers, the NAO has warned that schools could see a £288 million drop in per-pupil funding by 2027, based on a fall of 56,300 primary school pupils nationally. On average, lower performing schools have a higher proportion of unfilled places, which in the short term, may impact them financially and drive further educational inequality.
Addressing the Housing Crisis
While London isn’t the only area seeing falling pupil numbers, the impact is being felt most sharply in the capital. In tackling the issue, Bassam Mahfouz said: “We need to make sure people can live and grow up in London [...] and raise a family here as well.” But keeping families in areas like Westminster, he adds, depends on delivering more social and genuinely affordable housing suitable for families, not just one and two-bedroom flats, or the city runs the risk of losing them altogether. “Housebuilding is the most important thing that we can do,” Mahfouz said. “We need to make sure that we’re home building across every corner of London because if you don’t do it across London, then we turn into somewhere like Paris where those inner arrondissements have very few children living in them. We don’t want to have that sort of donut effect, where you’re just pushing families into outer London areas.”
