Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur has become the first MSP to be returned to the Scottish Parliament in the 2026 election, securing a record share of the vote in Orkney. Mr McArthur polled 70% of the vote, the highest percentage ever recorded in a Holyrood constituency contest.
Record Victory in Orkney
The Orkney result was a cause for celebration among Liberal Democrats, with party leader Alex Cole-Hamilton expressing delight. However, the joy was tempered by the loss of the neighbouring Shetland constituency, which the party had held since the first Holyrood elections in 1999. The SNP's Hannah Goodlad won 47% of the vote in Shetland, defeating Liberal Democrat candidate Emma Macdonald, who was contesting the seat after the retirement of previous MSP Beatrice Wishart.
Early Results and Counting Changes
The Orkney and Shetland seats were the first of Holyrood's 73 constituencies to declare results, following polling day on Thursday. Unlike most previous Scottish Parliament elections, counting took place the following day, with the traditional overnight count abandoned. Results from other constituency seats are expected to be declared throughout Friday afternoon, with the 56 regional list MSPs announced thereafter.
The election comes as SNP leader John Swinney aims for a record-breaking fifth consecutive victory for his party at Holyrood. Former Scottish finance secretary Shona Robison, who did not seek re-election, expressed optimism about the SNP's chances. Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Breakfast programme, she said: 'We are optimistic that we'll win the election for the fifth time in a row, which would be absolutely unprecedented.' She added that the party had fought hard for every vote and would wait to see the results.
SNP Confidence and Labour Challenges
Liz Lloyd, former chief of staff to Nicola Sturgeon, suggested the SNP could finish 30 seats ahead of their nearest rival. She praised John Swinney's leadership, noting the transformation in the party since he took over two years ago. 'The transformation John Swinney has taken the party on, steadying the ship, reviving the entire campaigning machinery of the SNP, to get to the point where even if they don't get the majority, where they are winning a fifth term, where he is winning his first mandate as first minister, it's a huge thing,' she said. She added that falling a few seats short of a majority would not be seen as failure if the SNP wins the election convincingly.
Scottish Labour, meanwhile, faces a challenging day. Former Scottish Labour communications director Alan Roden acknowledged that the party had been 'dealt a very challenging hand' in the Holyrood campaign, primarily due to the deep unpopularity of Keir Starmer's UK Government. He predicted that Scottish Labour would achieve its best result in the UK but conceded it would be a tough day. Labour also faces a challenge from the rising popularity of Reform UK, led in Scotland by Lord Malcolm Offord, which is expected to win its first group of MSPs and could become the second-largest party in the Scottish Parliament.
Other Parties and Expectations
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens are hoping to make gains, while the Conservatives, according to polls, could record their worst Holyrood result since devolution. The Senedd election in Wales also looks likely to go badly for Labour, with expectations that the party could lose power in Cardiff for the first time in the history of devolution.
