Support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has doubled in recent polls, with the latest Essential poll putting its primary vote at 13%, ahead of the Greens on 11% and more than double the 6.4% it achieved at the May federal election. The surge comes as the Coalition's vote has fallen from 31.8% to 27% in the same poll.
One Nation's Victorian president, Warren Pickering, said there has 'never been more appetite for One Nation than there is right now', predicting it is 'inevitable' the party will win lower-house seats in the state. He claimed the Liberal Party is 'making itself redundant' and will become a minor party within five to seven years if it does not change course.
Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce described the rise as part of a global 'phenomenon' driving far-right populist movements, including Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Donald Trump in the US. However, One Nation's support remains well short of Reform, which is polling at 31% in the UK.
One Nation claims a 60% increase in paid-up members since the election and is establishing local branches, including in Tamworth in Joyce's electorate. However, analysis of Essential polls shows its support is concentrated among over-55s and outside capital cities, with only 7% among 18- to 34-year-olds.
Dr Jill Sheppard of the Australian National University said One Nation lacks the donor and institutional support to pose an 'existential' threat to the Liberals and Nationals, but its rise will force the Coalition to 'think hard about how they want to pitch themselves at the next election'.
