One Nation has been surging in the polls ahead of next month's South Australian state election, with the party now claiming it will 'contest every seat'. The newest recruit, former Liberal turned Sky News commentator Cory Bernardi, joined leader Pauline Hanson in Adelaide on Tuesday amid high hopes of electoral success.
The March election is seen as the first real test of One Nation's growing support, which has been fuelled by chaos within the federal Coalition. However, historical analysis suggests the party's national polling figures may not hold up in South Australia. Retired ABC election analyst Antony Green identified only one seat in the state—Barker, held by Liberal Tony Pasin—among the first 25 seats to watch federally.
Despite this, Bernardi expressed optimism about winning seats in the lower house and securing one or two spots in the state's upper house. 'Whether we have one seat, we have five seats or 22 seats, we will be the strongest voice of opposition that this government has ever faced,' he said. The party hopes to become the official opposition, though recent state polling gives Labor a commanding two-party preferred lead of 66 to 34.
One Nation's rise is also marked by unpredictability, as some voters may hesitate to tick the box when it matters. At Tuesday's press conference, Hanson struggled to answer a question about failing to declare flights on billionaire Gina Rinehart's private jet, prompting jeers from supporters and a disturbing comment from the crowd about a reporter being 'lynched'.
