The Conservatives and Reform UK must form a pact to 'unite the Right' ahead of the next general election to prevent a hard-Left government, a senior Tory has warned. Analysis indicates that if recent local election results were replicated in a general election, Reform UK would fall short of an overall majority in the House of Commons.
Projection shows Reform short of majority
A projection by polling firm Rallings & Thrasher suggests Nigel Farage's party would win approximately 284 seats based on the vote shares seen in the local elections, shy of the 326 seats required to govern alone. The Conservatives would lose 25 seats, far fewer than previously forecast, and could form a comfortable majority of 77 in a coalition with Reform.
According to Rallings & Thrasher, Labour would collapse to just 110 MPs, but mathematically Sir Keir Starmer could cling on as Prime Minister with the support of the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and the Green Party.
Rees-Mogg: 'Unite the Right' to stop Left coalition
Tory grandee Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said: 'What this shows is the need to reunite the Right. Reform are doing extremely well in places that voted Leave. The Conservatives are showing they can still do well in less Brexity areas. If you combine the two you have an unstoppable force.' He warned that the alternative is a general election where Reform polls in the mid-20s, the Conservatives in the low-20s, resulting in a governing coalition of the Left.
His call came as the Tories showed signs of a comeback after years of electoral defeats. While they lost hundreds of seats, party leader Kemi Badenoch surprised pollsters by winning two crucial battleground councils in London.
Tories regain Wandsworth and Westminster
The Tories bucked the trend in Wandsworth and Westminster, taking them back from Labour, which had won them in 2022. In Westminster, which includes areas such as Buckingham Palace, the West End, and Belgravia, the Tories won 32 seats to Labour's 22. In Wandsworth, once known as 'Thatcher's favourite council' for its low council tax, the Tories also succeeded in reclaiming control from Labour.
Ms Badenoch also fended off a major challenge from Reform UK in Bexley, southeast London, comfortably holding the council despite recent polls suggesting a close contest. In Harlow, the Tories defended six of the 11 seats up for election. The Tory leader of the council, Dan Swords, said: 'Reform said they would win all 11. The Conservatives won all 11 - with record turnout and majorities. Phenomenal.'
Badenoch seen as asset
Despite losing around 500 seats, Tory MPs from across the party suggested that Ms Badenoch is now seen as an asset, and her position as leader is no longer in doubt. A Scottish MP argued: 'I think the Kemi project has to continue, she's obviously an asset. We just have to work out what it is that's causing the drag between us and her.' A shadow cabinet minister in Essex added that animosity towards the Tories on the doorstep has largely 'gone away'. They said: 'There's definitely a Kemi pick-up, she's definitely now a positive.'
A third shadow frontbencher told the Mail that despite the party losing control of his own council, 'There's no way she's going anywhere. She's there for the long-haul and I think we're the most united we've been in five or six years. We've got a hell of a lot of a job to do. But one of the things that astounded me on the doorstep is that the brand is not popular, but she is cutting through in a way I've not seen since my days campaigning for David Cameron.'
