Nigel Farage has hailed a 'historic change in British politics' as local election results suggest Reform UK is on course for a general election victory. The party has gained 645 councillors so far, while Labour lost 468 and the Conservatives 283. Bookmakers William Hill now has Reform UK at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next general election.
However, pollster Peter Kellner has warned that Reform UK's support may have peaked. Writing on Substack, Kellner noted that last year Reform won 41% of all seats contested across England, but this year's tally is around 33% based on overnight figures. 'If there were no polls, and there had been no elections last year, this year's figure would be astonishing. But we do have the record on recent polls and elections, and it seems clear that Reform has peaked,' he said.
Kellner added that under first-past-the-post, a decline in support could be damaging: 'Our voting system helped Reform last year, when it won a much higher proportion of seats than votes. Its support is now at the point where that bonus has started to shrink. If more voters desert the party, it could suffer badly – falling short in many councils and parliamentary seats that it would have won last year.'
Despite the warnings, Reform UK's gains have been geographically widespread, including in traditional Labour heartlands like Tameside, Hartlepool, and Redditch, as well as Conservative areas such as Newcastle-under-Lyme. Keiran Pedley of Ipsos noted that winning support across the country builds an activist base for future parliamentary contests.
Labour has lost control of several councils, but Kellner said there is 'cause for relief' as losses are not as severe as in the past 12 months, where it lost three-quarters of seats defended. He added that Labour's support has held up better in areas where Reform is weaker.
