An analysis of raw vote data in Michigan shows that Kamala Harris received at least 22,000 fewer votes than Joe Biden did in 2020 in the state's most heavily Arab American and Muslim cities, while Donald Trump made small gains of about 9,000 votes in those areas. The findings suggest that the drop in Democratic support is largely due to Arab American voters either staying home or casting ballots for third-party candidates, rather than switching to Trump.
In Dearborn, a Detroit suburb that is nearly 60% Arab American, Biden received about 31,000 votes in 2020, while Harris received just over 15,000. Trump, who campaigned in Dearborn in the final days of the election, received about 18,000 votes, up from 13,000 in the previous election. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, picked up about 7,600 votes in Dearborn.
In Hamtramck, a city that is about 60% Muslim or Arab American, Biden received about 6,500 votes in 2020, while Harris dropped to 3,200. Trump's vote total increased by about 2,000, and Stein received just over 600 votes. Hamtramck's mayor, Amer Ghalib, who is deeply socially conservative, endorsed Trump and spoke at his final campaign rally in the state.
In Dearborn Heights, a city that is about half Arab American, Biden won with more than 12,000 votes in 2020. This election, Trump won the city with 11,000 votes, while Harris received 9,000. The drop in Democratic support in these three cities represents nearly 27% of the 81,000-vote difference between Harris and Trump in Michigan.
Nationwide, support for Democrats also fell in seven precincts with significant Arab American or Muslim populations, according to data from the Arab American Institute. A separate exit poll by the Council on American Islamic Relations found that 53% of Muslim Americans voted for Jill Stein, 21% for Trump, and 20.3% for Harris. Rabiul Chowdhury, founder of Muslims for Trump, said Arab American and Muslim voters who defected made a 'key difference' across upper midwest swing states, adding that 'everyone's ultimate goal was to punish Harris.'
