It did not take long for the warnings of ‘vote Reform, get SNP’ to bear some pro-independence fruit. Stood with his shoulders slumped and hands behind his back, looking unusually pensive, Jackson Carlaw appeared on BBC screens early doors knowing his fate long before the result was declared.
Jackson Carlaw's Defeat
The former Conservative leader, and one of the best-liked and most articulate MSPs in the history of devolution, will not be back at Holyrood. Not because of a poor campaign – in fact, his was a strong one, buttressed by his long-standing incumbency and popularity among Scotland’s largest Jewish community. It was Reform’s 3,453 votes, securing them a pointless and distant fourth place, which drove the knife in. Most of these will have been potential Tory voters, and the veteran Conservative would only have needed around 1,000 of them to secure the seat. The impact? Holyrood loses a seasoned and talented debater to be replaced by a career nationalist who will add to the ranks of politicians prioritising independence over the matters people really care about.
Liam Kerr's Close Call
And it wasn’t just in East Renfrewshire suburbs where Reform’s presence rolled out the red carpet for the SNP. Liam Kerr, a brilliant parliamentarian who will mercifully still be back through the regional list, also knew the score as he stood awaiting his constituency result. Defeating SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn in a footrace would have been an incredible scalp for the Tories, and a proper slap to the Nationalists and their leader-in-waiting. Instead, Mr Kerr had to watch while Flynn delivered his victory speech for Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine, thanks to the 6,000 people who voted Reform, thus depriving the Tories of the 1,200 or so votes they needed to win.
Moray and Other Constituencies
A few miles west in Moray it was the same story. Tim Eagle, a relative newcomer in MSP terms, almost pipped the Nationalists, only for the Reform candidate – who had no chance of winning – placing a stick in his spokes as the finish line came into view. There were other examples too, like Sharon Dowey in Ayr who could have ousted Siobhian Brown, and Douglas Lumsden who came extremely close to beating Gillian Martin, another long-in-the-tooth Nationalist. And those who did triumph – especially in the south of Scotland – did so in spite of Reform’s pesky efforts.
Counter Arguments
In fairness to Reform, there is a counter argument. They could legitimately point to the Banffshire and Buchan Coast and say it was the Tories who got in the way as the finishing tape approached. Their long-standing campaigner and former candidate Linda Holt also repeatedly makes a good point: maybe the Conservatives just have to try harder? Her point being, you can’t just oppose someone standing because they take votes off you. Vote Reform, get Reform, is their mantra.
The Bigger Picture
But let’s look at the evidence. John Swinney now sails back into Holyrood on the back of his promise to supporters he would prioritise the break-up of Britain. He’ll be aided in that bid by a sizeable chunk of extremist Scottish Greens. Who is going to stand in the way? With their repeated weakness on the Union, and the English party’s contempt for Holyrood, there’s no way Reform can be trusted to form an intelligent and diligent defence of the UK. Labour – dispirited, dishevelled and in outright disarray – was never the most enthusiastic defender of the Union, and will be even less so now its UK leader has cost the party the election. That said, Anas Sarwar needs to also carry the can for this turgid performance. His election campaign was weak and unconvincing. If it was a personality and competence contest, it’s no wonder John Swinney wiped the floor with him.
Independence Back on the Table
And now the question of independence is right back on the table. Mr Swinney said it would be so, and while he may be rowing back on some of the detail of how he would make that happen, he has never been more committed to the end game. Yet again, we’re in a situation where the only party that has proved it can be properly trusted on the independence question is the Scottish Conservatives. Even without Reform blundering in to cost them numerous seats, the Tories would have had to do the heavy lifting. They’ve outperformed expectations once again, and will now have to do so over the next five years. If and when a new campaign for the future of Scotland’s place in the UK is required, make no mistake that it will be the dark blue rosettes holding the line.
Lessons for the Future
All that said, maybe Scotland just had to vote in some Reform MSPs to get it out their system. Inexperienced and chaotic, the majority of them will be found wanting as legislators and as community representatives. Once that has come to pass, Scots must make sure not to make the same mistake next time they go to the polls. Because as the Holyrood map now proves, one campaign slogan is truer than ever: vote Reform, get SNP.
