The SNP is on course to be the largest party after the Scottish Parliament election but could fall short of a majority, according to a new poll by the Diffley Partnership. The survey, conducted using the Survation online panel, projects the SNP winning 62 seats on May 7 — three short of a majority.
Reform UK Surges
Reform UK Scotland is set to become the second-largest party with 19 seats, replacing the Scottish Conservatives as the main opposition. Scottish Labour would return 17 MSPs, while the Scottish Greens would win 12, one more than the Scottish Conservatives. The Scottish Liberal Democrats would secure eight seats.
The SNP maintains a substantial lead in both the constituency and regional list votes, at 38% and 29% respectively. A fifth of respondents said they would back Reform UK on the constituency ballot, and 19% on the list. Scottish Labour received 18% on the constituency vote and 17% on the list. The Scottish Conservatives and Greens each garnered 12% on the list, with the Greens at only 2% on the constituency vote. The Liberal Democrats stood at 10% on the constituency and 9% on the list.
Independence Divide
Voters remain split on Scotland's future, with 52% saying they would vote Yes in another independence referendum and 48% No. Similarly, 52% believe an SNP majority or a pro-independence majority would constitute a mandate for another referendum, while 48% disagree.
On leadership preferences, 58% favoured SNP leader John Swinney over Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, and 68% preferred Swinney over Reform UK Scotland leader Lord Malcolm Offord. Sarwar was preferred over Offord by 60%. Swinney also had the highest favourability rating with a net score of -4, compared to Sarwar at -19 and Offord at -21.
Coalition Attitudes
Nearly half of voters (47%) prefer a single-party majority government. An SNP minority government is the most acceptable option, with 42% favourable and 44% unfavourable. A minority Labour government is viewed positively by 34% and negatively by 54%. Meanwhile, 52% have an unfavourable view of any governing arrangement involving Reform UK, with 36% favourable.
Scott Edgar, senior research manager at Diffley Partnership, said: “This polling suggests a complex and finely balanced contest. While the SNP remain clearly ahead and on course to be the largest party, albeit short of an overall majority, support for the other parties is broadly dispersed. If these figures were repeated on polling day, Scotland would be heading towards a fragmented parliament, meaning relatively small shifts in support could have a significant impact on the final distribution of seats.”
The survey of 1,012 respondents was conducted from April 17-23.
Party Reactions
Scottish Greens constitution spokesperson Patrick Harvie said the party was “delighted to see what would be a record number of Scottish Green MSPs elected to Holyrood” and that “Scotland is on course to return a clear pro-independence majority.” He argued that a pro-independence majority would make it “undeniable that Scotland should be given a choice on its future.”
Scottish Tory deputy leader Rachael Hamilton warned: “This is yet another poll showing the threat of an SNP majority is very real. They are on the cusp of what John Swinney has repeatedly said he will use to demand another divisive independence referendum.” She urged voters to back the Scottish Conservatives.
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “There is only one poll that matters and that is the poll on May 7 when people have the chance to end 20 years of SNP failure.” She emphasised that “Scottish Labour is the only party that can replace them in government.”
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said: “In many constituencies, we are on the verge of winning against the SNP but wherever you are, every vote for the Scottish Liberal Democrats on the second peach ballot will deliver change with fairness at its heart.”
Reform UK Scotland leader Lord Offord said: “Today’s poll confirms what we’re hearing on the ground — voters across Scotland are turning away from the same tired arguments and looking for real change.” He added that Reform UK is “ready to be a serious voice for voters who want practical solutions.”
Angus Robertson, SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central, said: “Scottish voters are backing John Swinney’s trusted and reliable leadership with a historic SNP majority within touching distance. Not only does an SNP majority unlock independence, it locks Nigel Farage out of power in Scotland.”
