Donald Trump's assertion that he is a master dealmaker has never appeared more absurd than in the context of the ongoing conflict with Iran. The war has proven disastrous for the US president, writes Jon Sopel. Despite his military failures and declining approval ratings at home, he shows no indication of loosening his hold on the Republican Party.
Project Freedom's Brief Existence
A news anchor on Fox News recently attempted to explain why Project Freedom was abruptly terminated by Trump, seemingly moments after its implementation. The anchor sought a rational explanation for this latest policy reversal, hinting at underlying doubts. For those who missed it, Project Freedom was Trump's initiative, promoted by Pete Hegseth and extensively briefed by Marco Rubio. It involved a US-led protective dome over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing safe passage for approximately 1,500 vessels through American military might. However, shortly after Rubio announced the plan, a French cargo ship was struck, injuring crew members. Trump then declared on Truth Social that Project Freedom was being suspended, leaving Hegseth and Rubio looking foolish.
Trump's Conflicting Messages
Trump justified the reversal by claiming Iran was close to accepting a deal to reopen the Strait, with future talks on its nuclear program. As of now, no peace deal exists. Trump insists negotiations are nearing conclusion, but evidence suggests Iran remains functional, the Strait is still closed, and the regime retains the capacity to strike Gulf states. If this is victory, defeat would be dire. The US declared the war over without achieving regime change, ending Iran's nuclear program, or eliminating its missile production. The focus now is on solving a problem—the closed Strait of Hormuz—that did not exist before hostilities began.
Strategic Genius or Tiddlywinks?
Trump's messaging has been perplexing. He oscillates between claiming Iran is begging for a deal and threatening severe consequences. The Fox presenter clings to the belief that this is strategic genius, but it increasingly resembles incompetence. Project Freedom likely failed because Saudi Arabia, not consulted, feared provocation to Iran and refused to allow US use of their air bases. This hardly reflects strategic brilliance.
Iron Grip on Republican Party
Despite the Iran war's unpopularity and rising fuel prices, Trump's control over the Republican Party remains firm. A test in Indiana saw Trump ally forces defeat five of seven Republican state senators who defied him on gerrymandering, ending their careers. This serves as a stark warning to others considering defiance. Trump may be losing the war in the Gulf, but he is still winning the war of obedience within his party.
