Anthony Albanese should be very 'cautious' of the rising power of One Nation as Pauline Hanson sets her sights on expanding into Labor strongholds, according to political experts.
Comparisons Between UK and Australia
Flinders University associate lecturer in public policy, Josh Sunman, said the current political landscape in the UK and Australia were comparable. Mr Sunman noted that One Nation and Reform UK, a right-wing party led by Nigel Farage, share a focus on immigration as the cause of issues like housing and crime.
'They are of the same kind of radical right, populist party family. They do share a lot of common positions,' he told the Daily Mail. However, he highlighted a difference in leadership styles: 'Hanson is seen as an authentic, unpolished figure, whereas Farage is actually a very polished and charismatic performer.'
One Nation's Recent Successes
Last weekend, One Nation won the Farrer by-election by a landslide, receiving almost twice as much support as the Liberal and National candidates. The week before, Hanson's party secured about 25 per cent of the vote in Nepean, before ultimately losing to the Liberals.
Hanson has announced plans to topple seats in Labor strongholds and outer suburban battlegrounds, declaring: 'We're coming after those other seats'.
Victorian State Elections in Focus
While Labor won big in the South Australian election, this is unlikely to be the case in the upcoming Victorian state elections, Mr Sunman said. 'I think it's pretty obvious the Victorian State election in November should be a bit more instructive than the South Australian election. The SA Labor Party was insulated by an incredibly popular Premier and an overall very popular government. But in Victoria, it's pretty fair to say that this is not the case. Labor's primary is significantly lower and Premier Jacinta Allen is incredibly unpopular.'
'It'd be interesting to see if One Nation is able to take some actual furniture off Labor because of that unpopularity and the longevity of the government.'
UK Parallels and Reform UK's Gains
Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer begged MPs not to withdraw their support after almost 100 Labour members called for his resignation. Pressure has been mounting on the UK Prime Minister since last week's disastrous local elections, which saw Labour lose 1,500 council seats in England and trail behind in third place in Scotland and Wales. Reform UK made significant gains, picking up 1,450 council seats.
'We're in a very similar institutional circumstance to the UK at the moment,' Mr Sunman said. 'Reform is an insurgent challenger in a system that isn't particularly favourable to them. It's up against a moderate Labour government with a big majority, and Reform is breaking through. That sense in the UK that the government hasn't been doing anything, it's not been trying to make things better, it's moving too slowly was certainly playing on the Albanese government's mind when it made its changes in the Federal Budget.'
South Australian Election Insights
Mr Sunman pointed to the South Australian elections in March, which saw One Nation claim four seats in the state's House of Assembly. 'Two-thirds of One Nation votes came from the Coalition, and closer to a third came from Labor, particularly in those outer suburban seats. There's this chunk that has come off the Labor vote in those places where Labor has traditionally been very safe, versus the Liberals.'
The expert added that the results of that election meant Albanese and his Labor Party should 'absolutely' be cautious about One Nation's success.
YouGov Director's Warning
The sentiment was echoed by Paul Smith, director of public data at YouGov, who said Labor must not celebrate One Nation's 'cannibalising' of the Liberal Party vote. 'One Nation's policies about the public ownership of part of our gas and energy reserves are something which would be very attractive to working people in western Sydney,' he told news.com.au. 'Reform got there first in the UK, and if One Nation gets there first about sharing our energy and resources to all Australians, then they have an opportunity to break through to the cities. But it will take a big policy change to break out of being a rural and regional party.'
