Pressure on Sir Keir Starmer has intensified after Andy Burnham was cleared to run for selection in the Makerfield by-election, bringing a potential leadership challenge closer. The Greater Manchester mayor is seeking to replace Josh Simons, who is stepping down as MP to facilitate Burnham's return to Parliament.
NEC Approval and Timeline
Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) granted Burnham permission to stand in the selection process. Applications close on Monday, with the NEC endorsing a candidate on Thursday. June 18 is considered the earliest possible date for the by-election. If elected, Burnham is widely expected to challenge Starmer for the party leadership.
Electoral Prospects
Makerfield is traditionally a safe Labour seat, but the party anticipates a strong challenge from Reform UK. At the 2024 general election, Simons secured a majority of just 5,399 over Nigel Farage’s party. Since then, Labour’s polling has collapsed while Reform has surged. In recent local elections, Reform won every council ward in the constituency, securing around half the vote, compared to Labour’s quarter.
However, Burnham could benefit from his strong personal following in the North West, where he enjoys a net favourability rating of 24% according to Ipsos—significantly higher than any party leader or the Labour Party itself. A Survation forecast suggests Labour is more likely to win with Burnham as candidate, but without him, Reform UK would likely take the seat.
Political Reactions
Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary this week without triggering a leadership contest, is set to make his first public appearance since his resignation at a conference on Saturday. Streeting has backed Burnham’s bid, stating Labour needs “our best players on the pitch.” Allies of the Ilford North MP have indicated he would be a candidate in any forthcoming leadership battle, and his resignation letter called for a contest featuring “the broadest set of candidates possible.”
If he does not step down, Starmer would automatically be on the ballot in a leadership race, and Downing Street insists he will fight any attempt to oust him. However, an unnamed Cabinet minister loyal to Starmer told The Telegraph that the Prime Minister is less categorical in private, keeping “all options” open.
Defence Spending Boost
In a bid to save his premiership, Starmer could approve an £18 billion boost to defence spending next week, according to The Times. The defence investment plan has been delayed, and Defence Secretary John Healey has privately pushed for a substantial uplift to address rising threats. A Government spokesperson said the plan will deliver “the best kit and technology” to frontline forces while investing in the UK economy, and it will be published as soon as possible.
