Geoffrey Hinton, the British-Canadian computer scientist often called a 'godfather of artificial intelligence', has increased his estimate of the probability that AI will lead to human extinction within the next 30 years. He now puts the chance at between 10% and 20%, up from his previous 10% forecast.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Hinton warned that the pace of change in AI development is 'much faster' than expected. He noted that humanity has never had to deal with entities more intelligent than itself, and that examples of a less intelligent thing controlling a more intelligent one are rare, citing only the relationship between a mother and baby.
Hinton, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto and a Nobel prize winner in physics, described humans as 'toddlers' compared with future highly powerful AI systems. He said most experts believe AI smarter than people will be developed within the next 20 years, calling that 'a very scary thought'.
The computer scientist, who left Google last year to speak freely about AI risks, called for government regulation. He argued that relying on the profit motive of large companies is insufficient to ensure safe development, and that only regulation can force them to prioritise safety research.
Hinton is one of three 'godfathers of AI' who have won the ACM AM Turing Award. However, fellow godfather Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, has downplayed the existential threat, suggesting AI could 'actually save humanity from extinction'.
