A 600kg Nasa satellite, the Van Allen Probe A, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Tuesday evening, with most of it burning up before reaching the surface. The US Space Force estimates re-entry at around 7.45pm EDT, with a 1 in 4,200 chance of harm to anyone on Earth.
The probe, launched in 2012 to study the Van Allen radiation belts, was deactivated in 2019 after running out of fuel. Early predictions suggested it would re-enter in 2034, but updated calculations show an earlier return.
Debris falling from space is common, with roughly 5,400 tons surviving re-entry over a 40-year period, according to a 2009 Wired report. However, the odds of being hit are low due to Earth's 71% water coverage. Nasa's Mark Matney noted that the chance for any individual is one in several trillion.
The only known person struck by space debris was Lottie Williams in 1997, who was hit by a metal fragment in Oklahoma, though it was never formally identified as space junk. Meanwhile, a meteorite crashed through a German house roof on Sunday, part of an estimated 15,000-17,000 meteorites reaching Earth annually.
