UK Economy Under the Microscope Ahead of Budget
All eyes are on the UK economy this morning as the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are released. This crucial data arrives less than two weeks before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her pivotal budget statement on 26 November.
The Office for National Statistics will publish the report at 7am GMT, revealing how the economy performed throughout September and the entire third quarter of 2025. Economists are anticipating a slowdown, predicting quarterly growth of just 0.2% for the July-September period. This would mark a decline from the 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter from April to June.
September's Economic Chill and Jaguar Land Rover Cyber Attack
The month of September itself is expected to reveal greater economic strain. The economy likely felt a chill from pre-budget uncertainty, compounded by significant disruption in a key industrial sector.
A major factor was a severe cyber attack on carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which forced the company to suspend production for the entire month. This incident had a devastating impact on national output, driving car production in British factories to its lowest level for a September since 1952 – a 73-year low. This substantial slump in a major industry is sure to negatively affect the wider measure of economic activity.
Political and Financial Consequences of Weak Growth
A disappointing GDP report will undoubtedly intensify criticism of Chancellor Rachel Reeves's handling of the economy as she finalises her budget plans. Weak growth figures will add pressure to deliver a statement that stimulates economic activity.
Furthermore, persistent economic weakness could spur the Bank of England towards further monetary easing. Financial markets are already speculating, with an interest rate cut in December now appearing quite likely. Such a move would be aimed at boosting lending and investment to counteract slow growth.
Today's Economic Agenda:
- 7am GMT: UK GDP report for September, and Q3 2025
- 7am GMT: UK trade report for September
- 9am GMT: IEA’s monthly oil market report
- Noon BST: Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks at a Chatham House event.
