A government-commissioned report led by former Labour Cabinet minister Alan Milburn warns that Britain faces a 'lost generation' as the number of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEETs) could surge to 1.25 million within five years.
Alarming Projections
The interim review, published on Thursday, highlights that approximately 957,000 young people aged 18 to 24 are currently NEETs, representing one in eight. However, Milburn's analysis projects this could rise to one in six by 2031, equating to an estimated 1.25 million individuals. The latest Office for National Statistics figures from February underscore the severity of the issue.
Systemic Failures
Milburn, who served as Health Secretary under Tony Blair, will argue that the welfare state and health systems are no longer fit for purpose. He is expected to state: 'Six in ten have never had a job. Twenty years ago, that figure was closer to four in ten. Detachment is no longer temporary. For too many young people it is becoming permanent. We are at risk of a lost generation.'
The report also notes a sharp decline in entry-level jobs, with hospitality positions halving in the last four years alone. Milburn will say: 'The first rung of the career ladder has thinned. For too many young people it is now simply out of reach. That places them in a hopeless Catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone.'
Call for Urgent Action
Milburn is expected to urge the government to prioritise this issue, stating: 'This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market. Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits.'
Earlier this month, Milburn warned of a 'bedroom generation' and linked anxiety from social media to rising economic inactivity among youth. The review also found that 84% of surveyed NEETs expressed a desire for work or training, challenging the narrative that young people are unwilling to work.
Funding Imbalance
The research reveals a stark disparity in public spending: for every £1 spent on employment support for young people, approximately £25 is spent on benefits. This 'fundamental imbalance' highlights how resources are allocated.
Stuart Machin, Chief Executive of Marks & Spencer, commented: 'This report lays bare the joblessness crisis facing a generation of young people. The findings are shocking but not surprising. A Saturday job in retail changed my life, built my confidence and gave me the skills to build a fulfilling career. We have a chance to provide a similar path to every young person.'
George Bangham, head of social policy at the New Economics Foundation (NEF), added: 'When nearly 1 million young people are neither in employment, education nor training, this points to a system-wide failure. It’s refreshing to see the Milburn review identify this, and reject lazy tropes about this problem somehow being young people's own responsibility. Most young people want to work, but too few jobs are available to them in many local areas, as NEF research has shown. Job vacancies are at their lowest level in 12 years, outside of the pandemic lockdowns – and young people are struggling more than others to land the few jobs available.'
