New research from the Resolution Foundation thinktank has highlighted a stark correlation between the UK's declining birthrate and the ongoing housing affordability crisis, urging policymakers to address financial barriers that prevent young people from starting families.
Alarming Rise in Childlessness Among Young Women
The report, titled 'Bye Bye Baby', reveals a rapid shift in fertility patterns. For instance, the proportion of women who have not yet become mothers by age 30 has increased from 48% for those born in the late 1980s to 58% for those born in the early 1990s.
This trend is especially pronounced among non-graduate women aged 25-29. In 2011, one in three women in this demographic had no children. By 2023, this figure had risen dramatically to more than half, at 54%.
Housing Instability as a Key Factor
The analysis points to housing struggles as a primary driver. "This has happened alongside falling partnership rates and a major shift away from home ownership towards costly private renting and living with parents, both of which make starting a family harder," the report states.
For non-graduates in their late 20s, the share living in private rented accommodation—often expensive and insecure—has doubled from 16% in 1998-99 to 33% in 2023-24. Over the same period, home ownership rates for this group have halved.
Financial Constraints Influence Family Planning
The Resolution Foundation suggests that economic factors play a significant role in decisions about parenthood. Among 32-year-olds without children, for example, twice as many in the lowest income quartile intend to remain permanently childless compared to those in the highest income quartile.
Charlie McCurdy, a senior economist at the thinktank, commented: "Deciding whether to have children is a deeply personal choice, but it's clear that financial constraints are at play too. Policymakers should look to address the financial barriers that are hindering young people's ability to start a family—such as increasing housing affordability and opportunities to get on the housing ladder—to make parenthood more achievable for those who want it."
Political Responses and Proposed Solutions
Politicians have proposed various measures to counter the declining birthrate. The Labour party has expanded free childcare and introduced breakfast clubs in primary schools to help balance work and parenthood. Meanwhile, Reform party leader Nigel Farage has labelled the trend an "existential crisis" and advocated for increasing the married tax allowance to encourage family formation.
However, the Resolution Foundation argues that focusing on housing affordability may be more effective. The thinktank recently suggested a system of taxpayer-backed loans to assist first-time buyers with deposits, potentially lowering monthly costs and easing financial pressures.
Broader Implications of Falling Birthrates
The declining birthrate raises long-term fiscal concerns due to an ageing population, alongside immediate impacts such as school closures from shrinking enrolment. In London, some secondary schools are at risk after primary schools have already shut.
While it remains uncertain whether non-graduate women will have children later in life, the research underscores the urgent need for policy interventions. By tackling housing affordability, the UK could address a critical barrier to family formation and mitigate the broader social and economic consequences of a falling birthrate.
