UK home sales experienced a dramatic 41% decline in March compared to the same month last year, according to newly released data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). The sharp annual fall is primarily attributed to a surge of transactions in March 2025, when buyers rushed to complete purchases before the stamp duty holiday ended.
Market Resilience Despite Decline
Approximately 104,070 properties were sold across the UK in March 2026. While this represents a substantial drop year-on-year, the figure was 1% higher than the previous month and marked the highest sales recorded since March 2025. This suggests a degree of resilience in the housing market, despite ongoing economic pressures.
Mortgage rates, which had been easing, have recently seen an uptick amid the conflict in the Middle East, adding further uncertainty to the market.
Expert Analysis
Frances McDonald, director of research at Savills, commented: "March transaction data points to a degree of resilience in the UK housing market, as activity maintains momentum on long-term averages, despite ongoing economic pressures. However, these numbers have likely been supported by those wanting to lock into mortgage offers and transact ahead of further rate rises. Many of these deals will have been agreed and in the pipeline prior to the conflict in the Middle East. The true impact of the recent wave of uncertainty will likely become more apparent in the coming months, once mortgage offers prior to the conflict begin to expire."
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, noted: "Mortgage rates have jumped around in recent weeks, given the confused outlook around the length of the conflict and to what extent it could escalate."
Nicky Stevenson, managing director at Fine & Country, explained: "The 41% fall is more about last year's distortion than a sudden deterioration in demand. It's also worth remembering these figures reflect completions, which typically lag agreed sales by two to four months. With this in mind, the ongoing headwinds affecting affordability may need a little longer to trickle down to the market."
Market Sentiment and Affordability
Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, said: "Mortgage rate volatility earlier in the year did weigh on sentiment, but with swap rates easing and lenders beginning to trim fixed-rate products, there are early indications of improving confidence."
Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent, observed: "The 'need-to-moves' are showing more realism when it comes to negotiations, although the amount of choice of flats in particular means it is taking longer to obtain commitment and some prices are softening a little. Demand for smaller family houses has remained relatively strong as we would expect at this time of year."
Nathan Emerson, chief executive at Propertymark, advised: "As consumers prepare for the traditionally busy spring months to buy and maybe sell a property, they should keep a close eye on mortgage deals and future affordability in terms of ensuring continuity regarding household budgeting in case of future jumps in inflation. Propertymark's sector data recently demonstrated a peak in the number of housing transactions taking in excess of 17 weeks to complete. With current uncertainty within the economy, there is potential for this figure to trend further upwards."
