Recent outbreaks of hantavirus and norovirus on cruise ships have made headlines, but they are unlikely to diminish the growing popularity of vacation cruises, according to industry representatives and travel experts. Despite three passengers dying from hantavirus aboard the MV Hondius after a stop in Argentina and a norovirus outbreak on a British ship in Bordeaux, France, many in the industry still expect a record number of global cruise passengers this year.
Industry Forecasts and Expert Opinions
Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration, noted that cruise consumers seem resilient to such news. In mid-April, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) forecasted 38.3 million ocean-going passengers in 2026, a 4% increase from the record 37.2 million in 2025. While industry sales figures are closely held, CLIA declined to comment on booking impacts. Major cruise companies like Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, and Carnival did not respond to inquiries.
Company and Traveler Responses
Oceanwide Expeditions, owner of the MV Hondius, foresees no operational changes, with a cruise departing from Keflavik, Iceland, on May 29. Veteran cruisers remain undeterred. Jenni Fielding, a cruise blogger known as Cruise Mummy, has eight cruises booked and plans more, stating that cruising is as safe as any other holiday with sensible health precautions. Hospitality influencer Scott Eddy, currently on a cruise in Monaco, reported no passenger concerns about hantavirus.
CruiseCompete.com CEO Bob Levinstein reported a 31.7% increase in cabin bookings in early May compared to last year, with no drop in demand. He attributed norovirus concerns to CDC reporting requirements, noting that on a 5,000-passenger ship, a 3% illness rate often goes unnoticed. Kwortnik added that current news cycles rarely affect bookings, as cruises are typically booked six months to a year in advance.
Market Resilience and Long-Term Outlook
Viking Cruises reported a brief softening in river cruise demand during the Iran war but a quick rebound, with 92% of 2026 and 38% of 2027 cruises booked. Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst at Pace University, noted that travelers with imminent departures are unlikely to cancel due to refund policies. He believes the hantavirus story gained attention due to parallels with the Diamond Princess COVID-19 quarantine, which devastated the industry until 2022.
CLIA reported fewer passengers from China and Japan post-COVID, but demand elsewhere is booming, with new ships ordered through 2037. Cruising appeals across generations and incomes, with Bank of America surveys showing Gen Z and millennials most likely to plan cruises, and lower-income households increasing cruise spending. Cruise lines have introduced shorter, more affordable itineraries to attract these passengers.
Kwortnik emphasized the value of cruising, noting that a cruise from Miami often costs less than a hotel stay in the city, while including lodging, destinations, food, entertainment, and transportation.
