Iran Shuts Strait of Hormuz in Retaliation for U.S.-Israeli Military Actions
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, in a direct response to recent U.S.-Israeli military operations. This dramatic move, fulfilling a long-standing threat, immediately disrupts approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, raising alarms about a potential global energy crisis.
Why Iran Acted Now: From Threat to Reality
When a commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned in 2011 that cutting off the strait would be "easier than drinking a glass of water," it echoed decades of similar threats. In the years since, the Guards have repeatedly warned of closure during tensions over sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme, and previous Israeli and U.S. strikes.
Analysts historically viewed strait closure as a last resort due to risks of long-term strategic shifts by Iran's enemies and retaliation against its own energy sector. However, the equation changed after attacks on Iran began on February 28, including the killing of its supreme leader. Iranian officials now describe the conflict as existential, with the Guards increasingly directing strategy.
What Is at Stake: Global Energy and Food Security
The narrow passage between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is the sole sea exit for oil- and gas-producing nations like Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. United Nations data shows traffic through the strait, which typically handles 20% of global oil and LNG, has plummeted by 97% since the conflict started.
Oil prices briefly surged to their highest level since 2022 on Monday. High oil prices could trigger another cost-of-living crisis, reminiscent of the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the UN. A prolonged conflict also risks a fertilizer shock, threatening global food security. Analytics firm Kpler reports about 33% of the world's fertilizers, including sulphur and ammonia, pass through the Strait.
An extended war could fuel fears of a global economic crisis similar to those following the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s.
Why Securing the Strait Is So Challenging
Shipping lanes are just two nautical miles wide, with ships required to make a turn opposite Iranian islands and a mountainous coast that provides cover for Iranian forces, according to shipping broker SSY Global. Iran's conventional navy has largely been destroyed, but the Guards retain numerous options, including fast attack craft, mini submarines, mines, and even jetskis packed with explosives, said Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander.
Tehran can produce around 10,000 drones monthly, per the Centre for Information Resilience, a non-profit research group. Escorting three or four ships daily through the strait might be feasible short-term using seven or eight destroyers with air cover, depending on mitigating mini-submarine risks, but sustaining this for months would demand more resources, Sharpe noted.
Even if Iran's capacity for ballistic missiles, drones, and floating mines were neutralized, ships would still face suicide operation threats, said Adel Bakawan, Director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies. Kevin Rowlands, Editor of the RUSI Journal, predicted that if the war continues for weeks, some escort system will emerge, as the world needs Gulf oil to flow.
International Responses and Promises
President Donald Trump stated on March 3 that the U.S. would protect oil tankers through the strait, but attacks have persisted with little traffic getting through. He also ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for shipping companies.
French President Emmanuel Macron indicated several European countries, India, and other Asian states are planning a joint protection mission, but only post-conflict. France is deploying about a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and potentially the Strait of Hormuz.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has discussed options with German and Italian leaders to support commercial shipping, a spokesperson said Tuesday. General Caine mentioned at the Pentagon that a range of options is being considered, without detailing specifics.
Lessons from Other Regional Chokepoints
Yemen's Houthis, allied with Tehran but with a far smaller arsenal, managed to shut down most Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait traffic for over two years despite U.S. and EU-led protection. Most shipping companies still use a longer route via Africa's southern tip, though Maersk had planned a staggered return to the Suez route from January.
An EU-led force has been more successful against Somali piracy, but those adversaries are far less equipped than Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Are There Viable Alternatives?
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have sought to bypass the strait by building more oil pipelines, but these are not currently operational. An attack on a Saudi pipeline by Houthi militia in 2019 demonstrated that such alternatives remain vulnerable, highlighting the strait's irreplaceable role in global energy logistics.
