Kazakhstan announced on Tuesday that it will redirect crude oil previously destined for Germany via the Druzhba pipeline to Russian ports, following Moscow's declaration that it would cease Kazakh oil flows from May. The diverted oil had been a crucial supply for the PCK Schwedt refinery, Berlin's primary source of fuel, which the German government took control of from its Russian majority stakeholder, Rosneft, after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Details of the Diversion
According to Kazakhstan's energy ministry, approximately 160,000 tonnes of oil will be sent to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's terminal on the Black Sea in May, with an additional 100,000 tonnes directed to Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. Kazakh crude accounted for 17 per cent of the PCK Schwedt refinery's total supply.
Background to the Disruption
Moscow's decision to halt Kazakh flows comes shortly after disruptions to Russian oil supplies via a separate branch of the Druzhba pipeline, which serves Hungary and Slovakia through Ukraine. Kyiv attributed that incident to Russian drone attacks on oil infrastructure, while Hungary and Slovakia accused Ukraine of intentionally cutting off supply.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak last week cited 'technical reasons' for the halt to supply to Germany, offering no further explanation. Industry sources suggested that Ukrainian attacks on Druzhba facilities in Russia, including on the Unecha pumping station last year, could have reduced its capacity and ability to pump oil both to Germany and toward Hungary.
Impact on Global Oil Markets
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at Russia's government-run Financial University, warned that Europe's interests are tied to Russia's port security. 'If Europe cannot influence Ukraine and attacks on Russian export terminals continue, the world risks losing not only part of Russian oil but also Kazakh oil, which would push prices higher,' he said.
Kazakhstan exported 2.146 million metric tons of oil to Germany last year via the Druzhba pipeline, or around 43,000 barrels per day. It sent 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. The rerouting underscores growing geopolitical tensions affecting energy supplies.
