Labour could suffer its worst-ever local election performance on 7 May, with projections suggesting the governing party may lose over 1,000 council seats. Pollsters warn the result could be a 'calamity' for Sir Keir Starmer's leadership, as discontent with the government fuels gains for Reform UK and the Green Party.
According to Professor Stephen Fisher of the University of Oxford, Labour could lose 1,900 councillors—a 74% drop in the seats it is defending—marking the worst local election result for any prime minister in history. The Conservatives are also forecast to lose 1,010 seats, while Reform UK could gain 2,260 councillors and the Greens 450. The Liberal Democrats are projected to add 200 seats.
Political scientist Sir John Curtice described the elections as a 'remarkable calamity' for both main parties, noting that the two-party system is under severe strain. He said the contests could provide a 'significant organisational boost' to Reform and the Greens, who have capitalised on voter discontent over issues such as migration and the government's handling of Gaza.
In London, all 32 borough councils are up for election. Labour currently holds majority control in 21 councils, but the party's popularity has declined since 2022, particularly among young, progressive voters. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is projected to take the highest vote share in four London boroughs, up from just 49 councillors currently.
Sir Keir Starmer faces renewed pressure over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, which has overshadowed a slight uptick in popularity from the government's handling of the US-Iran war. Sir John Curtice remarked that Starmer has 'never been a popular leader' and has failed to define his vision for the country. Calls for his resignation are expected to intensify if the local election results are as dire as forecast.
