A new poll suggests Reform UK could become the second-largest party in the Scottish Parliament, potentially reshaping the political landscape ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election. The Survation survey, commissioned by True North Advisors, places Nigel Farage's party slightly ahead of Labour on both constituency and regional votes.
The SNP remains the largest party with 33% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional list. Reform UK follows with 19% and 20% respectively, while Labour trails with 19% and 18%. The Conservatives are on 11% and 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and 10%, the Greens on 5% and 9%, and Alba on 1% and 3%.
According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, the seat projection would see the SNP win 58 seats, Reform UK 21, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Liberal Democrats 10, and Greens eight. A majority requires 65 seats. The poll also found 51% would vote to remain in the UK, with 49% backing independence.
Sir John noted that Reform UK's rise comes from voters switching from both the Conservatives and Labour, with over one in four former Tory voters and nearly one in five former Labour voters now supporting Reform. He warned that the fragmentation of the unionist vote could help the SNP secure another pro-independence majority.
Fergus Mutch of True North Advisors said the results show Reform UK at a 'tipping point' to become the second party in Scottish politics, while Labour's Anas Sarwar struggles and the Conservatives risk falling from second to fourth place. The poll surveyed 1,020 people aged 16 and over between May 2 and 5.
