The Met Office has indicated how long the third heatwave of the year could last, with the most extreme heat expected to break around the upcoming weekend of July 11th–12th.
On Monday (6 July), a week-long yellow weather warning for heat was upgraded to amber by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Forecasters predict temperatures could soar to above 30°C in places.
Heat Health Risks and Vulnerable Groups
The government agency is warning that rising temperatures this week may increase health risks, particularly for vulnerable groups. The national weather service said it expects a prolonged spell of hot conditions in parts of the UK, but it will not be as hot and humid as last month’s record-breaking heatwave.
According to the latest long-range forecast published by the Met Office, the transition will happen in stages, and a distinct north-south split will dictate exactly how long the hot weather lingers where you are.
Deputy Chief Forecaster's Statement
In a press release, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Steven Keates said: "Temperatures this week are not expected to reach the highs we witnessed last month, though parts of southern England in particular are likely to see several days in the low 30s Celsius, and a few places could reach 34-35°C later this week."
He added: "Night-time temperatures again will not be as high as what we experienced in June, though some larger urban areas are likely to remain in the high teens Celsius overnight, especially later in the week, and there is a chance that a tropical night (where temperatures do not fall below 20°C) may be recorded in a few places."
Regional Temperature Variations
Keates continued: "Much of England and Wales will be hot, and the heat will extend to parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland too, though here peak temperatures are more likely to be in the upper 20s Celsius. With high UV and high temperatures, people should take the usual precautions with the heat and the sun."
Based on the long-range forecast, humidity should surge, triggering a growing risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. An Atlantic frontal system will push in from the northwest, bringing cooler, fresher air to northern and western regions first.
Cooling Trend and Outlook
Temperatures will then start to trend down from Monday, 13 July onwards. With this, the oppressive, low-30s heat will back off, returning closer to standard summer warmth.
Towards the end of the month, the Met Office points to a continuous pattern of high pressure. The weather will remain largely dry, fine, and generally "warm" for much of mid-July, though the south may see occasional thundery interruptions.
High pressure is expected to remain the dominant force in the latter parts of the month, meaning that while this specific heatwave will break by the beginning of next week, the rest of July is highly likely to feature overall above-average temperatures.
