The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed that a 'Super El Niño' has officially begun in the Pacific Ocean, with ocean surface temperatures showing 'consistent and significant warming' across the central and eastern Pacific. Experts warn that water temperatures in key locations are set to rise more than 2°C (3.6°F) above average, supercharging a natural cycle that could trigger catastrophic weather events worldwide.
Collision with Climate Change
The extreme warming is expected to collide with ongoing climate change, potentially sparking apocalyptic weather anomalies across the globe. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated: 'This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.'
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a powerful weather cycle that shifts every two to seven years. Normally, strong trade winds push warm water toward Australia. During El Niño, these winds collapse or reverse, trapping a massive reservoir of heat in the tropical Pacific that disrupts global weather systems.
Global Temperature Predictions
The WMO predicts an 'overwhelming likelihood' of above-average land temperatures between 60°S and 60°N, covering nearly every populated area of the planet. Saulo added: 'El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts.'
Europe is already experiencing record-breaking heatwaves. In France, a deadly summer has been linked to 1,300 fatalities. Britain has just endured its hottest June on record, with the Met Office recording an average temperature of 17.1°C, surpassing the previous record of 16.9°C set in 2025. The mercury hit 37.3°C in Santon Downham, Suffolk, breaking the record for the hottest June day ever seen in the UK.
Future Impacts on the UK
While current heatwaves were not directly triggered by El Niño, the worst is yet to come as the climate phenomenon peaks between November and February. Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: 'Two deadly heatwaves in the last two months have shown how dangerous climate change impacts have become at 1.4°C of global average temperature rise. Now an intensifying El Niño is set to add more heat into our climate, driving temperatures up almost everywhere in the coming months.'
Although the impact on Britain is indirect, a powerful El Niño can reduce rainfall across Northern Europe and push global temperatures higher. Simon Culling, an investigator for the UK's Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), wrote on X: 'If the current predictions for the forthcoming El Niño phase are realised, what does this mean for the UK? It may mean hotter summers for both 2026 and 2027 and increases the risk of a significant cold spell in winter 2026/27. Let's see what plays out.'
