Chess World Title Hopes Shaken as Favourite Caruana Stumbles Before Candidates
Opponents in the upcoming world title Candidates tournament may find encouragement in Fabiano Caruana's recent setbacks this week. The world No 3, reigning US champion, and 5-2 favourite to win the Candidates event at the Cap St Georges Resort in Pegeia, Cyprus, from 29 March to 16 April, aimed to prepare with two competitions in his hometown of St Louis, but the outcomes have not aligned with expectations.
Caruana's Unexpected Losses Raise Doubts
Caruana secured second place in the Saint Louis Masters, finishing unbeaten with a score of 7 out of 9, which still represented a solid performance. However, in the American Cup, a double elimination knockout format, he faced defeats against both Wesley So and Levon Aronian. Both losses followed a similar pattern: Caruana won the first classical game with White, lost the second with Black, and then fell in the speed tie-break by a score of 1.5-2.5.
These defeats highlighted a potential vulnerability in Caruana's gameplay, as he was gradually outmanoeuvred in middle games and endgames without queens. This weakness is likely to be a focal point for his opponents in Cyprus. So's victory came after 68 moves, while Aronian achieved a decisive advantage by move 21 and wrapped up the game in just 40 moves.
Candidates Tournament Now More Open
With Caruana's stumble, the Candidates event appears more open than before. Hikaru Nakamura, the world No 2 and popular streamer, and Javokhir Sindarov, the Uzbek winner of the 2025 World Cup, are now co-second favourites at around 5-1 odds. Other contenders who may gain support include China's Wei Yi, India's Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Anish Giri from the Netherlands, Germany's Matthias Blübaum, and Russia's Andrey Esipenko. Additionally, regional instability could potentially disrupt the tournament.
Women's Candidates and British Rapidplay Championship Updates
The Women's Candidates, set to take place concurrently in Pegeia, will determine the challenger to China's Ju Wenjun. The field features notable players such as India's Koneru Humpy, Vaishali Rameshbabu, and Divya Deshmukh; China's Zhu Jiner and Tan Zhongyi; Russia's Aleksandra Goryachkina and Kateryna Lagno; and Kazakhstan's Bibisara Assaubayeva. While any competitor could emerge victorious, a slight preference leans towards Goryachkina.
In domestic chess news, the British Rapidplay Championship, the national title for one-hour chess with a 15-minute time control and a 10-second increment per move, will be held in Peterborough this weekend. The event spans 11 rounds over two days, with increased prizes totalling over £6,500, including £1,500 for the winner and £750 for the women's champion. Over 200 players have entered, with no separate Major, Minor, or Novice sections.
The entry fee is set at £35 for all participants, and approximately half of the entrants are rated below 1800, indicating a mix of skill levels. Seven grandmasters are in the field, with favourites including England internationals Gawain Maroroa Jones and Michael Adams, as well as 17-year-old Shreyas Royal, England's youngest GM. Promising junior talents like Stanley Badacsonyi, Supratit Banerjee, Freddy Waldhausen Gordon, Oleg Verbytski, and Kai Hanache also have opportunities to shine.
Challenges in English Chess Tournaments
A current issue for classical English tournaments is the low participation of experts and masters rated between 2100 and 2400. Factors deterring them include high entry fees and concerns about underrated junior players. The proportion of sub-2000 rated players preferring Major and Minor sections is growing, while experts often limit their play to events like the Four Nations Chess League and county matches.
In contrast, congresses in France, Germany, and Spain typically feature a single Open event with hundreds of players, including enough grandmasters, international masters, and 2300-rated players to make title norms achievable. For instance, last week's Aeroflot Open in Moscow imposed a minimum 2300 rating requirement, with higher fees for those in the lower 2300s. The English model faces difficulties in adaptation, risking a scenario where over-the-board play standards in England lag behind those in other European countries.
